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Foreign Trade Regimes and Import Demand Function: Evidence from Sri Lanka

  • M. Shahe Emran

    (Department of Economics, Stanford University)

  • Forhad Shilpi

    (World Bank)

Time series data for Sri Lanka span periods of pervasive trade and exchange restrictions along with periods of liberalized trade. This paper implements a structural econometric model of aggregate imports which incorporates the implications of the shifts in the policy regime. The results demonstrate that the model outperforms the existing alternatives both on statistical and economic grounds. The estimated elasticities, in contrast to the available evidence, have correct signs, high statistical significance, and plausible magnitudes. The implications for policy analysis like calculation of equilibrium exchange rate are discussed. Special Note: If you are looking for the paper titled "Import Demand Under Trade and Exchange Rate Restrictions: A Structural Econometric Approach with an Application to India", it has been withdrwan temporarily. A revised version will be posted in near future.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/it/papers/0012/0012002.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Trade with number 0012002.

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Date of creation: 08 Feb 2001
Date of revision: 04 Apr 2002
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0012002
Note: Type of Document - Tex; prepared on IBM PC ; to print on HP; figures: none. Tables included.. none
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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  1. Reinhart, Carmen, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 6974, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Clarida, R.H., 1992. "Cointegration, Aggregate Consumption and the Demand for Imports: A Struct ural Econometric Investigation," Discussion Papers 1992_29, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  3. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  4. Bertola, Giuseppe & Faini, Riccardo, 1990. "Import demand and non-tariff barriers: The impact of trade liberalization : An application to Morocco," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 269-286, November.
  5. Shahe Emran, M. & Shilpi, Forhad, 1996. "Foreign exchange rationing and the aggregate import demand function," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 315-322, June.
  6. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1986. "Determinants of international trade flows : The Case of Developing Countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 107-123.
  7. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Pittis, Nikitas, 1999. " Efficient Estimation of Cointegrating Vectors and Testing for Causality in Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 1-35, February.
  8. David De La Croix & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 1998. "Intertemporal substitution in import demand and habit formation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(6), pages 589-612.
  9. M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J Smith, 2004. "Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long Run Relationships," ESE Discussion Papers 46, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  10. Adnan Mazarei, 1995. "Imports Under a Foreign Exchange Constraint; The Case of the Islamic Republic of Iran," IMF Working Papers 95/97, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Neary, J.P & Roberts, K.W.S, 1978. "The Theory of Household Behaviour under Rationing," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 132, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  12. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  13. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
  14. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Chui, Michael K F, 1999. "Estimating Income and Price Elasticities of Trade in a Cointegration Framework," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 254-64, May.
  15. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Niroomand, Farhang, 1998. "Long-run price elasticities and the Marshall-Lerner condition revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 101-109, October.
  16. Athukorala, Prema-chandra & Rajapatirana, Sarath, 2000. "Liberalization and Industrial Transformation: Lessons from the Sri Lankan Experience," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(3), pages 543-72, April.
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