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Estimating Import Demand Function in Developing Countries: A Structural Econometric Approach with Applications to India and Sri Lanka

Author

Listed:
  • M. Shahe Emran

    () (Department of Economics/Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University/ Columbia University)

  • Forhad Shilpi

    () (DECRG, World Bank)

Abstract

Due to the unavailability of time series data on domestic market clearing price of imports, the estimation ofnotional price and income elasticities of aggregate import demand remains a daunting task for a large number of developing countries. This paper develops a structural econometric model of a two goods representative agent economy that incorporates a binding foreign exchange constraint at the administered prices of imports. A theoretically consistent parameterization of the virtual relative price of imports circumvents the data problem, and thus enables the estimation of income and price responses by cointegration approach. The price and income elasticity estimates for India and Sri Lanka, in contrast to the extant literature, have correct signs, high statistical significance, and plausible magnitudes.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Shahe Emran & Forhad Shilpi, 2008. "Estimating Import Demand Function in Developing Countries: A Structural Econometric Approach with Applications to India and Sri Lanka," Working Papers 2008-10, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  • Handle: RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2008-10
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    File URL: http://www.gwu.edu/~iiep/assets/docs/papers/Emran_IIEPWP2008-10.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Go, Delfin S. & Hongyi Li, 1999. "Quantifying the fiscal effects of trade reform," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2162, The World Bank.
    2. Allan W. Gregory & Alfred A. Haug & Nicoletta Lomuto, 2004. "Mixed signals among tests for cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 89-98.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arzu Tay Bayramoglu & Deniz Sukruoglu, 2016. "Non-Energy Import Demand Function in Turkey: New Evidence," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(12), pages 750-761, December.
    2. Rashid, Abdul & Razzaq, Tayyaba, 2010. "Estimating Import-Demand Function in ARDL Framework: The Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 23702, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Import Demand; Foreign Exchange Rationing; Virtual price; India; Sri Lanka; Cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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