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An Analysis of the Determinants of Thailand’s Exports and Imports wtih Major Trading Partners

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  • Jiranyakul, Komain
  • Brahmasrene, Tantatape

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of real exchange rates and related variables on Thailand’s exports and imports with its three major trading partners. The stationarity test results show that all time series variables in the models are nonstationary and integrated of order one. However, the cointegration tests indicate these series are not cointegrated. Therefore, Stock and Watson's dynamic ordinary least squares method are employed. The results show that real income and bilateral real exchange rates are crucial determinants of export and import between Thailand and its three major trading partners as predicted by a relatively vast literature in international trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiranyakul, Komain & Brahmasrene, Tantatape, 2002. "An Analysis of the Determinants of Thailand’s Exports and Imports wtih Major Trading Partners," MPRA Paper 45080, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:45080
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clarida, Richard H, 1994. "Cointegration, Aggregate Consumption, and the Demand for Imports: A Structural Econometric Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 298-308, March.
    2. Rose, Andrew K., 1991. "The role of exchange rates in a popular model of international trade : Does the 'Marshall-Lerner' condition hold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3-4), pages 301-316, May.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Sineenat Sermcheep, 2019. "Services Export and Economic Growth in ASEAN Countries," Journal of Asian Economic Integration, , vol. 1(2), pages 163-182, September.
    3. Baek, Jungho & Nam, Soojoong, 2021. "The South Korea–China trade and the bilateral real exchange rate: Asymmetric evidence from 33 industries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 463-475.
    4. Murad, S. M. Woahid, 2012. "Bilateral Export and Import Demand Functions of Bangladesh: A Cointegration Approach," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 35(1), pages 43-60, March.
    5. Hongsheng Zhang & Bo Meng & Shuzhong Ma, 2018. "Determinants of China's bilateral trade balance in global value chains," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 463-485, July.
    6. Jungho Baek & Jee Hee Yoon, 2023. "The Korea‐Vietnam trade and the bilateral exchange rate: Asymmetric evidence from commodity trade data," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 124-148, March.
    7. Christelle Meniago & Joel Hinaunye Eita, 2017. "The effects of exchange rate changes on Sub-Saharan Africa trade," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 213-230.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2013. "Empirical tests of the Marshall-Lerner condition: a literature review," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 411-443, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bilateral real exchange rate; imports; exports; dynamic OLS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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