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The Determinants of Pakistan’s Trade Balance: An ARDL Cointegration Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Waliullah

    ()

  • Mehmood Khan Kakar

    ()

  • Rehmatullah Kakar

    ()

  • Wakeel Khan

    ()

Abstract

This article is an attempt to examine the short and long-run relationship between the trade balance, income, money supply, and real exchange rate in the case of Pakistan’s economy. Income and money variables are included in the model in order to examine the monetary and absorption approaches to the balance of payments, while the real exchange rate is used to evaluate the conventional approach of elasticities (Marshall Lerner condition). The bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction models, developed within an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework is applied to annual data for the period 1970 to 2005 in order to investigate whether a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the trade balance and its determinants. Additionally, variance decompositions (VDCs) and impulse response functions (IRFs) are used to draw further inferences. The result of the bounds test indicates that there is a stable long-run relationship between the trade balance and income, money supply, and exchange rate variables. The estimated results show that exchange rate depreciation is positively related to the trade balance in the long and short run, consistent with the Marshall Lerner condition. The results provide strong evidence that money supply and income play a strong role in determining the behavior of the trade balance. The exchange rate regime can help improve the trade balance but will have a weaker influence than growth and monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Waliullah & Mehmood Khan Kakar & Rehmatullah Kakar & Wakeel Khan, 2010. "The Determinants of Pakistan’s Trade Balance: An ARDL Cointegration Approach," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(1), pages 1-26, Jan-Jun.
  • Handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:15:y:2010:i:1:p:1-26
    as

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    File URL: http://121.52.153.179/JOURNAL/LJE%20Vol15-%20No.12010/1%20Waliullah%20EDITED%20AC.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kaiyatsa, Stevier, 2015. "Does the farm input subsidy program displace commercial fertilizer sales? Empirical evidence from agro-dealers in Malawi," Theses-Masters 252977, AgEcon Search.
    2. Mejía Méndez, Cinthya & Jáquez Polanco, Jaqueli & Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2017. "Determinantes del déficit comercial de la República Dominicana
      [Determinants of the trade deficit of the Dominican Republic]
      ," MPRA Paper 81218, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Simplice Asongu, 2014. "REER Imbalances and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the Proposed West African Monetary Union," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(2), pages 276-289, June.
    4. Muhammad Ahad, 2017. "Impact of Financial Development on Trade Balance: An ARDL Cointegration and Causality Approach for Pakistan," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(5), pages 1199-1214, October.
    5. Muzammil, Muhammad, 2015. "Impact of Financial Development on Trade Balance: An ARDL Cointegration and Causality Approach for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 68587, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. repec:spr:epolit:v:34:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s40888-017-0053-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Muhammad Aftab & Karim Bux Shah Syed & Rubi Ahmad & Izlin Ismail, 2016. "Exchange-rate variability and industry trade flows between Malaysia and Japan," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 453-478, June.
    8. Muhammad Aftab & Rubi Ahmad & Izlin Ismail & Mumtaz Ahmed, 2016. "Does exchange-rate uncertainty matter in the Malaysia–E.U. bilateral trade? An industry level investigation," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(3), pages 461-485, August.
    9. Hassan, Syeda Anam & Zaman, Khalid, 2012. "Effect of oil prices on trade balance: New insights into the cointegration relationship from Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2125-2143.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade balance; ARDL; exchange rate; money supply; Pakistan.;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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