Determinants of Malaysian Trade Balance: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach
This paper examines the short- and long-run relationships between trade balance, real exchange rates, income and money supply in the case of Malaysia. The inclusion of income and money variables in the study is purposely to examine the monetary and absorption approaches to the balance of payments beside the conventional approach of elasticity, using exchange rates. Using the bound testing approach to cointegration and error correction models, developed within an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework, we investigate whether a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between trade balance and the determinants. Additionally, we adopt an innovation accounting by simulating variance decompositions (VDC) and impulse response functions (IRF) for further inferences. Using this approach, we find evidence of a long-run relationship between trade balance and income and money supply variables but not between trade balance and real exchange rate. The findings also suggest that Marshall-Lerner condition does not hold in the long-run for Malaysia and for policy wise the Malaysian trade balance/balance of payments should be viewed from absorption and monetary approaches.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 36 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RGER20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RGER20|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:glecrv:v:36:y:2007:i:1:p:89-102. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.