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The short and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Mexico

  • Antonia López Villavicencio

    ()

    (Departament d'Economia Aplicada, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona)

  • Josep Lluís Raymond Bara

    ()

    (Departament d'Economia Aplicada, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona)

This paper explores the real exchange rate behavior in Mexico from 1960 until 2005. Since the empirical analysis reveals that the real exchange rate is not mean reverting, we propose that economic fundamental variables affect its evolution in the long-run. Therefore, based on equilibrium exchange rate paradigms, we propose a simple model of real exchange rate determination which includes the relative labor productivity, the real interest rates and the net foreign assets over a long period of time. Our analysis also considers the dynamic adjustment in response to shocks through impulse response functions derived from the multivariate VAR model.

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Paper provided by Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona in its series Working Papers with number wpdea0606.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea0606
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  1. Francisco Maeso-Fernandez & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2001. "Determinants of the euro real effective exchange rate: a BEER/PEER approach," International Finance 0111003, EconWPA.
  2. Masao Ogaki & Julio Santaella, 1999. "The Exchange Rate and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Mexico," Working Papers 99-21, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
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  4. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
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  7. Steven B. Kamin & Marc Klau, 1998. "Some multi-country evidence on the effects of real exchange rates on output," International Finance Discussion Papers 611, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Joseph Joyce & Linda Kamas, 2003. "Real and nominal determinants of real exchange rates in Latin America: Short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 155-182.
  9. Sebastian Edwards, 1989. "Real Exchange Rates in the Developing Countries: Concepts and Measure- ment," NBER Working Papers 2950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Enrique Alberola & Susana G. Cervero & Humberto Lopez & Angel Ubide, 2000. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0051, Econometric Society.
  11. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  12. Pesaran,H.M. & Shin,Y., 1995. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9419, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  13. repec:fth:inseep:9645 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Y. & Smith, R.J., 1999. "Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long-run Relationships," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9907, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  15. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  16. Enrique Alberola, 2003. "Misalignment, liabilities dollarization and exchange rate adjustment in Latin America," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0309, Banco de Espa�a.
  17. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1996. "Testing for the 'Existence of a Long-run Relationship'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9622, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  18. J. Saul Lizondo & Peter J. Montiel, 1989. "Contractionary Devaluation in Developing Countries: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(1), pages 182-227, March.
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  23. Kamin, Steve B. & Rogers, John H., 2000. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 85-109, February.
  24. Parha Deb & Salim M. Darbar, 1999. "Linkages Among Asset Markets in the United States; Tests in a Bivariate Garch Framework," IMF Working Papers 99/158, International Monetary Fund.
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