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Long‐run determinants and misalignments of the real effective exchange rate in the EU

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  • Mariarosaria Comunale

Abstract

This paper explores the role of fundamentals, included in the transfer effect theory, in explaining medium/long‐run movements in the real effective exchange rates in the EU over the period 1994–2012, together with an analysis of the misalignments. We use heterogeneous, cointegrated panel frameworks in static and a dynamic setup. We find that the coefficients of the determinants are extremely different across groups and the transfer theory does not always hold. The core countries have been undervalued for almost the whole period; the periphery has experienced high rates. The misalignments in the CEECs are still wide and reflect the catching‐up process.

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  • Mariarosaria Comunale, 2019. "Long‐run determinants and misalignments of the real effective exchange rate in the EU," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(5), pages 649-672, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:66:y:2019:i:5:p:649-672
    DOI: 10.1111/sjpe.12206
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    1. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2017. "Dutch disease, real effective exchange rate misalignments and their effect on GDP growth in EU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 350-370.
    2. Claire Giordano, 2018. "Price and cost competitiveness misalignments of the euro area and of its main economies according to a quarterly BEER model, 1999-2017," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 444, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Fidora, Michael & Giordano, Claire & Schmitz, Martin, 2017. "Real exchange rate misalignments in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2108, European Central Bank.
    4. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2015. "Current Account and Reer Misalignments in Central Eastern EU Countries: an Update Using the Macroeconomic Balance Approach," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 20, Bank of Lithuania.
    5. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2016. "A Closer Look at EU Current Accounts," CEIS Research Paper 393, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 11 Aug 2016.
    6. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2018. "Current account and real effective exchange rate misalignments in Central Eastern EU countries: An update using the macroeconomic balance approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 414-436.
    7. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2017. "A panel VAR analysis of macro-financial imbalances in the EU," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 40, Bank of Lithuania.
    8. Gordana Kordic, 2015. "Post-Transition Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies: Dilemmas on Eurozone membership in terms of Global Recession," MIC 2015: Managing Sustainable Growth; Proceedings of the Joint International Conference, Portorož, Slovenia, 28–30 May 2015,, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper.
    9. Mariarosaria Comunale & Jonas Striaukas, 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy: Interest Rates and Low Inflation. A Review of Literature and Methods," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 13, Bank of Lithuania.
    10. repec:bof:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201510131420 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Joscha Beckmann & Mariarosaria Comunale, 2020. "Exchange rate fluctuations and the financial channel in emerging economies," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 83, Bank of Lithuania.

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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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