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Exchange Rate Developments and Fundamentals in Four EU Accession and Candidate Countries: Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey

This paper deals with exchange rate challenges in the four potential EU Member States Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey. For the two countries with freely floating currencies, Romania and Turkey, we evaluate possible exchange rate misalignments based on a monetary model of exchange rate determination. In the case of Bulgaria and Croatia, two countries with currency board and narrow-band peg arrangements against the euro, we discuss possible exit strategies. We argue that a continuation of their current exchange rate regimes is likely to represent an optimal strategy for these countries in the run-up to both EU membership and the eventual adoption of the euro.

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File URL: http://www.oenb.at/dms/oenb/Publikationen/Volkswirtschaft/Focus-on-European-Economic-Integration/2004/Focus-on-European-Economic-Integration-Q2-04/chapters/feei_2004_2_special_focus_4_tcm16-25040.pdf
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Article provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its journal Focus on European Economic Integration.

Volume (Year): (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 119-137

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Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2004:i:2:b:4
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  1. Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 2000. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 285-323 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Egert, Balazs, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in South Eastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) diseased?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 205-241, June.
  3. Groen, Jan J J, 2002. " Cointegration and the Monetary Exchange Rate Model Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(4), pages 361-80, September.
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  5. Leo Bonato & Andreas Billmeier, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Monetary Policy in Croatia," IMF Working Papers 02/109, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2003. "Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Economies," Working Paper Series rwp03-011, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  7. Egert, Balazs & Halpern, Laszlo, 2006. "Equilibrium exchange rates in Central and Eastern Europe: A meta-regression analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1359-1374, May.
  8. Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Ronald McDonald, 2004. "The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs," Macroeconomics 0401013, EconWPA.
  9. Jan J.J. Groen, 1998. "The Monetary Exchange Rate Model as a Long-Run Phenomenon," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-082/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
  11. Balázs ÉGERT & Kirsten LOMMATZSCH, . "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Acceding Countries: How Large is Our Confidence (Interval)?," EcoMod2004 330600047, EcoMod.
  12. Helmut Stix, 2001. "Survey Results about Foreign Currency Holdings in Five Central and Eastern European Countries," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(3), pages 41-48, 02.
  13. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2000. "Currency boards: More than a quick fix?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(31), pages 269-335, October.
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