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Exchange Rate Developments and Fundamentals in Four EU Accession and Candidate Countries: Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey

This paper deals with exchange rate challenges in the four potential EU Member States Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey. For the two countries with freely floating currencies, Romania and Turkey, we evaluate possible exchange rate misalignments based on a monetary model of exchange rate determination. In the case of Bulgaria and Croatia, two countries with currency board and narrow-band peg arrangements against the euro, we discuss possible exit strategies. We argue that a continuation of their current exchange rate regimes is likely to represent an optimal strategy for these countries in the run-up to both EU membership and the eventual adoption of the euro.

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File URL: http://www.oenb.at/dms/oenb/Publikationen/Volkswirtschaft/Focus-on-European-Economic-Integration/2004/Focus-on-European-Economic-Integration-Q2-04/chapters/feei_2004_2_special_focus_4_tcm16-25040.pdf
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Article provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its journal Focus on European Economic Integration.

Volume (Year): (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 119-137

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Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2004:i:2:b:4
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  1. Égert, Balázs & Halpern, László, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Central and Eastern Europe: A Meta-Regression Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 4869, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
  3. Helmut Stix, 2001. "Survey Results about Foreign Currency Holdings in Five Central and Eastern European Countries," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(3), pages 41-48, 02.
  4. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," CEPR Discussion Papers 1921, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Leo Bonato & Andreas Billmeier, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Monetary Policy in Croatia," IMF Working Papers 02/109, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Groen, Jan J J, 2002. " Cointegration and the Monetary Exchange Rate Model Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(4), pages 361-80, September.
  7. Egert, Balazs, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in South Eastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) diseased?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 205-241, June.
  8. repec:dgr:uvatin:19980082 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2003. "Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging Economies," NBER Working Papers 10032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2000. "Currency boards: More than a quick fix?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(31), pages 269-335, October.
  11. Clements, Kenneth W. & Frenkel, Jacob A., 1980. "Exchange rates, money, and relative prices: The dollar-pound in the 1920s," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 249-262, May.
  12. Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Ronald McDonald, 2004. "The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs," Macroeconomics 0401013, EconWPA.
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