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Dutch Disease Scare in Kazakhstan: Is It Real?

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  • Bal??zs ??gert

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  • Carol S. Leonard

    ()

Abstract

In this paper we explore the evidence that would establish that Dutch disease is at work in, or poses a threat to, the Kazakh economy. Assessing the mechanism by which fluctuations in the price of oil can damage non-oil manufacturing???and thus long-term growth prospects in an economy that relies heavily on oil production???we find that non-oil manufacturing has so far been spared the perverse effects of oil price increases from 1996 to 2005. The real exchange rate in the open sector has appreciated over the last couple of years, largely due to the appreciation of the nominal exchange rate. We analyze to what extent this appreciation is linked to movements in oil prices and oil revenues. Econometric evidence from the monetary model of the exchange rate and a variety of real exchange rate models show that the rise in the price of oil and in oil revenues might be linked to an appreciation of the U.S. dollar exchange rate of the oil and non-oil sectors. But appreciation is mainly limited to the real effective exchange rate for oil sector and is statistically insignificant for non-oil manufacturing.

Suggested Citation

  • Bal??zs ??gert & Carol S. Leonard, 2007. "Dutch Disease Scare in Kazakhstan: Is It Real?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp866, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2007-866
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    2. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2011. "Does Euro or Dollar Pegging Impact the Real Exchange Rate? The Case of Oil and Commodity Currencies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(9), pages 1557-1592, September.
    3. Fakhri Hasanov, 2010. "The Impact of Real Oil Price on Real Effective Exchange Rate: The Case of Azerbaijan," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1041, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra & Lya Paola Sierra, 2017. "Long-term links between raw materials prices, real exchange rate and relative de-industrialization in a commodity-dependent economy: empirical evidence of “Dutch disease” in Colombia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 777-798, March.
    5. Christian Dreger & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2009. "Drivers of Exchange Rate Dynamics in Selected CIS Countries: Evidence from a FAVAR Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 867, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Oskenbayev, Yessengali & Yilmaz, Mesut & Abdulla, Kanat, 2013. "Resource concentration, institutional quality and the natural resource curse," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 254-270.
    7. Hasanov, Fakhri, 2009. "Analyzing price level in a booming economy: the case of Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 29555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Amegashie, J. Atsu & Ouattara, Bazoumanna & Strobl, Eric, 2007. "Moral Hazard and the Composition of Transfers: Theory with an Application to Foreign Aid," MPRA Paper 3158, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 May 2007.
    9. Balazs Egert & Carol Leonard, 2008. "Dutch Disease Scare in Kazakhstan: Is it real?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 147-165, April.
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    11. Christian Dreger & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2011. "Drivers of Exchange Rate Dynamics in Selected CIS Countries: Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Analysis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 47(4), pages 49-58, July.
    12. Akhmetov, Almaz, 2017. "Testing the Presence of the Dutch Disease in Kazakhstan," MPRA Paper 77936, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Yulia Vymyatnina, 2014. "Spillover Effects in the Customs Union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus," EcoMod2014 7160, EcoMod.
    14. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2008:i:2:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Sierra, Lya Paola & Manrique L., Karina, 2014. "A first approach to the impact of the real exchange rate on industrial sectors in Colombia," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    16. Eromenko, Igor, 2016. "Do Remittances Cause Dutch Disease in Resource Poor Countries of Central Asia?," MPRA Paper 74965, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Somayeh Mardaneh, 2012. "Inflation Dynamics in a Dutch Disease Economy," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/25, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
    18. Nezir Kose & Sabit Baimaganbetov, 2015. "The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Kazakhstan Macroeconomic Dynamics: A Structural Vector Autoregression Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 1058-1064.
    19. Stephan Barisitz, 2009. "Macrofinancial Developments and Systemic Change in CIS Central Asia," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 38-61.
    20. Talan İşcan, 2012. "Changes in the Terms of Trade and Sectoral Reallocation of Labor: The Case of Guyana, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 473-500, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dutch Disease; Kazakhstan; real exchange rate;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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