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Exchange Rate Assessments: Methodologies for Oil Exporting Countries

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  • Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho
  • Mr. Rudolfs Bems

Abstract

Are the current account fluctuations in oil-exporting countries "excessive"? How should their real exchange rate respond to the evolution of external (and domestic) fundamentals? This paper proposes methodologies tailored to the specific features of oil-exporting countries that help address these questions. Price-based methodologies (based on the time series of real effective exchange rates) identify a strong link between the real exchange rate and the terms of trade, but have relatively limited explanatory power. On the other hand, an empirical model of the current account, which fits oil exporting countries' data well, and an intertemporal model that takes into account the stock of oil reserves provide useful benchmarks for oil exporters' external balances.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho & Mr. Rudolfs Bems, 2009. "Exchange Rate Assessments: Methodologies for Oil Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 2009/281, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/281
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Paul Cashin & Samya Beidas-Strom, 2011. "Are Middle Eastern Current Account Imbalances Excessive?," IMF Working Papers 2011/195, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Alberto Behar & Armand Fouejieu, 2018. "External adjustment in oil exporters: The role of fiscal policy and the exchange rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 926-957, March.
    3. Mr. Robert C York & Ms. Misa Takebe, 2011. "External Sustainability of Oil-Producing Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 2011/207, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Araujo, Juliana D. & Li, Bin Grace & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2016. "Current account norms in natural resource rich and capital scarce economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 144-156.
    5. Mr. Steven T Phillips & Mr. Luis Catão & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Mr. Rudolfs Bems & Ms. Mitali Das & Mr. Julian Di Giovanni & Ms. Filiz D Unsal & Marola Castillo & Jungjin Lee & Jair Rodriguez & Mr. Mauric, 2013. "The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology," IMF Working Papers 2013/272, International Monetary Fund.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Kuwait: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2011/218, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Jordi Prat & Leandro Medina & Mr. Alun H. Thomas, 2010. "Current Account Balance Estimates for Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 2010/043, International Monetary Fund.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Chad: 2016 Article IV Consultation- Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chad," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/274, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Simone Maciel Cuiabano & Maxwell Opoku-Afari, 2018. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Integration in the EAC Countries," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 46(3), pages 267-279, September.
    10. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2019. "Long‐run determinants and misalignments of the real effective exchange rate in the EU," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(5), pages 649-672, November.

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