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A Theory of Exchange Rates and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Hyoung-Seok Lim

    (The Ohio State University.)

  • Masao Ogaki

    (The Ohio State University.)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to construct a model of exchange rate determination that is consistent with the stylized facts regarding the uncovered interest parity for short term and long term interest rates. This task is especially challenging because of the forward premium anomaly found for short term interest rates and forward exchange rates. With an assumption that investors have a short investment horizon, the model is consistent with these stylized facts even when the degree of risk aversion is low. The model predicts a complicated relationship between exchange rates and the term structure of the interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Hyoung-Seok Lim & Masao Ogaki, 2003. "A Theory of Exchange Rates and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," RCER Working Papers 504, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    • Handle: RePEc:roc:rocher:504
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hyoung-Seok Lim & Masao Ogaki, 2013. "A Theory of Exchange Rates and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 74-87, February.
    2. repec:bla:reviec:v:9:y:2001:i:3:p:505-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Masao Ogaki & Young Hwan Byeon, 1999. "A Empirical Investigation of Exchange Rates and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 99-20, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
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    10. Guy Meredith & Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," NBER Working Papers 6797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:4:p:933-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Annika Alexius, 2001. "Uncovered Interest Parity Revisited," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 505-517, August.
    13. Popper, Helen, 1993. "Long-term covered interest parity: evidence from currency swaps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 439-448, August.
    14. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    15. Meese, R. & Rogoff, K., 1988. "Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Ralation Over The Modern Floating-Rate Period," Working papers 368, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    16. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-218, March.
    17. Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 1997. "The Term Structure Of Forward Exchange Premiums And The Forecastability Of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting The Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 353-361, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Antonia López Villavicencio & Josep Lluís Raymond Bara, 2006. "The short and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Mexico," Working Papers wpdea0606, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    2. Jaebeom Kim & Masao Ogaki & Minseok Yang, 2007. "Structural Error Correction Models: A System Method for Linear Rational Expectations Models and an Application to an Exchange Rate Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2057-2075, December.
    3. Kim, Jaebeom & Ogaki, Masao, 2004. "Purchasing Power Parity for Traded and Non-traded Goods: A Structural Error Correction Model Approach," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 22(1), pages 1-25, March.
    4. Wali Ullah & Yoshihiko Tsukuda & Yasumasa Matsuda, 2012. "Term Structure Forecasting of Government Bond Yields with Latent and Macroeconomic Factors: Does Macroeconomic Factors Imply Better Out-of-Sample Forecasts?," TERG Discussion Papers 287, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    5. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meredith, Guy, 2000. "Testing uncovered interest parity at short and long horizons," HWWA Discussion Papers 102, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    6. Richard T. Baillie & Dooyeon Cho, 2014. "When Carry Trades in Currency Markets are not Profitable," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 794-803, November.
    7. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2006. "Survey of Literature on Covered and Uncovered Interest Parities," MPRA Paper 22737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February.
    9. Shu Wu, 2007. "Interest Rate Risk and the Forward Premium Anomaly in Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 423-442, March.
    10. Antonia LÓPEZ VILLAVICENCIO & Josep Lluís RAYMOND BARA, 2008. "Short‐Run And Long‐Run Determinants Of The Real Exchange Rate In Mexico," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 46(1), pages 52-74, March.
    11. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2005. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era," NBER Working Papers 11077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Hyoung-Seok Lim & Masao Ogaki, 2013. "A Theory of Exchange Rates and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 74-87, February.
    13. Ogaki, Masao & Santaella, Julio A., 2000. "The exchange rate and the term structure of interest rates in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 135-155, October.
    14. Bozhechkova Alexandra & Trunin Pavel & Sinelnikova-Muryleva Elena & Petrova Diana & Chentsov Alexander, 2018. "Building of monetary and currency markets models," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 175P, pages 1-96.
    15. Huseyin Karamelikli & Mohammad Sharif Karimi, 2022. "Asymmetric relationship between interest rates and exchange rates: Evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1269-1279, January.
    16. Leo Krippner, 2006. "A Yield Curve Perspective on Uncovered Interest Parity," Working Papers in Economics 06/16, University of Waikato.
    17. Jaebeom Kim & Masao Ogaki & Minseok Yang, 2003. "Structural Error Correction Models: Instrumental Variables Methods and an application to an exchange rate model," RCER Working Papers 502, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forward premium anomaly; uncovered interest parity for long term bonds;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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