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The Exchange Rates and Monetary Dynamics in Pakistan: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Apporach


  • Khan, Muhammad Arshad
  • Sajjid, Muhammad Zabir


In this paper we investigate both the long and short run relationship between real money balances, real income, inflation rate,foreign interest rate and real effective exchange rate with reference to Pakistan over the period 1982Q2-2002Q4 using ARDL apporach which is a newly developed econometric technique. The estimate results indicate that in the long run real income,inflation rate, foreign interest rate and real effective exchane rate have a significant impact on real money balances in Pakistan. The dynamics of real money demand show that the effects of rate of inflation,foreign interest rate and the real effective exchange rate are much smaller in the short run than long run. the results also reveal that the demand for real money balances in Pakistan is stable, despite the economic reforms pursuede by the government since the late 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Khan, Muhammad Arshad & Sajjid, Muhammad Zabir, 2005. "The Exchange Rates and Monetary Dynamics in Pakistan: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Apporach," MPRA Paper 6752, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6752

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1996. "Testing for the 'Existence of a Long-run Relationship'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9622, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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    12. Mansor Ibrhim, 2001. "Financial Factors and the Empirical Behavior of Money Demand: A Case Study of Malaysia," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 55-72.
    13. Cuthbertson, Keith & Taylor, Mark P., 1990. "Money demand, expectations, and the forward-looking model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 289-315.
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    1. repec:ksp:journ2:v:4:y:2017:i:2:p:167-192 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Bernhard Ozofere Ishioro, 2015. "The Long-Run Relationship between Foreign Reserves Inflows and Domestic Credit: Evidence from a Small Open Economy," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 11(2), pages 18-38, April.
    3. repec:ksp:journ6:v:4:y:2017:i:1:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. KHAN, Muhammad Arshad, 2008. "Long-Run And Short-Run Dynamics Of Foreign Exchange Reserves Flows And Domestic Credit In Pakistan," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(1), pages 61-78.
    5. Birendra Bahadur Budha, 2013. "Demand for Money in Nepal: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 25(1), pages 21-36, April.
    6. Dawood MAMOON & Umbreen IFTIKHAR & Muhammad Shahid HASSAN, 2017. "Relationship of Fiscal Discipline and Household Income on Money Demand Function in Sri Lanka," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1-9, March.
    7. Birendra Bahadur Budha, 2012. "A Panel Data Analysis of Foreign Trade Determinants of Nepal: Gravity Model Approach," NRB Working Paper 12/2012, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department.
    8. Hassan, Shahid & Ali, Umbreen & Dawood, Mamoon, 2016. "Measuring Money Demand Function in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 75496, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    Exchange rate; real money balances; ARDL;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money


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