IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/cliomt/v11y2017i2d10.1007_s11698-016-0143-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The stability of money demand in the long-run: Italy 1861–2011

Author

Listed:
  • Vittorio Daniele

    (University of Catanzaro Magna Graecia)

  • Pasquale Foresti

    (The London School of Economics and Political Science)

  • Oreste Napolitano

    (University of Naples Parthenope)

Abstract

Money demand stability is a crucial issue for monetary policy efficacy, and it is particularly endangered when substantial changes occur in the monetary system. By implementing the ARDL technique, this study intends to estimate the impact of money demand determinants in Italy over a long period (1861–2011) and to investigate the stability of the estimated relations. We show that instability cannot be excluded when a standard money demand function is estimated, irrespectively of the use of M1 or M2. Then, we argue that the reason for possible instability resides in the omission of relevant variables, as we show that a fully stable demand for narrow money (M1) can be obtained from an augmented money demand function involving real exchange rate and its volatility as additional explanatory variables. These results also allow us to argue that narrower monetary aggregates should be employed in order to obtain a stable estimated relation.

Suggested Citation

  • Vittorio Daniele & Pasquale Foresti & Oreste Napolitano, 2017. "The stability of money demand in the long-run: Italy 1861–2011," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(2), pages 217-244, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:cliomt:v:11:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11698-016-0143-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11698-016-0143-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11698-016-0143-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11698-016-0143-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. James M. Boughton, 1992. "International Comparisons of Money Demand: A Review Essay," IMF Working Papers 1992/007, International Monetary Fund.
    2. John Thornton, 1998. "The long-run demand for currency and broad money in Italy, 1861-1980," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 157-159.
    3. Sarno, Lucio, 1999. "Adjustment Costs and Nonlinear Dynamics in the Demand for Money: Italy, 1861-1991," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 155-177, April.
    4. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2010. "Investigating M3 money demand in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 111-122, February.
    5. Toniolo, Gianni (ed.), 2013. "The Oxford Handbook of the Italian Economy Since Unification," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199936694.
    6. Kai Carstensen & Jan Hagen & Oliver Hossfeld & Abelardo Salazar Neaves, 2009. "Money Demand Stability And Inflation Prediction In The Four Largest Emu Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(1), pages 73-93, February.
    7. James Boughton, 1992. "International comparisons of money demand," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 323-343, October.
    8. Hamori, Shigeyuki & Hamori, Naoko, 2008. "Demand for money in the Euro area," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 274-284, September.
    9. Salvatore Capasso & Oreste Napolitano, 2012. "Testing for the stability of money demand in Italy: has the Euro influenced the monetary transmission mechanism?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(24), pages 3121-3133, August.
    10. Frauke Dobnik, 2013. "Long-run money demand in OECD countries: what role do common factors play?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 89-113, August.
    11. Sahar Bahmani & Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 2012. "Exchange rate volatility and demand for money in Iran," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(3), pages 268-276.
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    13. Nasri Harb, 2004. "Money demand function: a heterogeneous panel application," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(9), pages 551-555.
    14. Katarina Juselius, 1998. "Changing monetary transmission mechanisms within the EU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 455-481.
    15. Rinaldi, R. & Tedeschi, R., 1996. "Money Demand in Italy: A System Approach," Papers 267, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
    16. Christian Dreger & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2007. "Long-Run Money Demand in the New EU Member States with Exchange Rate Effects," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 75-94, April.
    17. William Poole, 1969. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Special Studies Papers 2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Carlo A. Favero & Franco Spinelli, 1999. "Deficits, Money Growth and Inflation in Italy: 1875–1994," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 28(1), pages 43-71, February.
    19. Vito Antonio Muscatelli & Franco Spinelli, 1997. "An Econometric and Historical Perspective on the Long-Run Stability of the Demand for Money: The Case of Italy," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 56(1-2), pages 41-65, June.
    20. Fratianni,Michele & Spinelli,Franco, 2005. "A Monetary History of Italy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023450.
    21. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    22. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    23. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, June.
    24. Muscatelli, V. Anton & Spinelli, Franco, 2000. "The long-run stability of the demand for money: Italy 1861-1996," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 717-739, June.
    25. Giuseppina Gianfreda & Fabrizio Mattesini, 2015. "Adverse clearings in a monetary system with multiple note issuers: the case of Italy (1861-1893)," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, January.
    26. Pasquale Foresti & Oreste Napolitano, 2013. "Modelling long-run money demand: a panel data analysis on nine developed economies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(22), pages 1707-1719, November.
    27. Toniolo, Gianni & Conte, Leandro & Vecchi, Giovanni, 2003. "Monetary Union, institutions and financial market integration: Italy, 1862-1905," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 443-461, October.
    28. Mr. Bob Traa, 1991. "Money Demand in the Netherlands," IMF Working Papers 1991/057, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Paresh Narayan & Seema Narayan & Vinod Mishra, 2009. "Estimating money demand functions for South Asian countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 685-696, June.
    30. M. Sarcinelli, 1995. "Italian monetary policy in the '80s and '90s: the revision of the modus operandi," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 48(195), pages 397-422.
    31. Roberto Golinelli & Sergio Pastorello, 2002. "Modelling the demand for M3 in the Euro area," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 371-401.
    32. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I.
    33. William Poole, 1970. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(2), pages 197-216.
    34. Arango, Sebastian & Ishaq Nadiri, M., 1981. "Demand for money in open economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 69-83.
    35. Dieter Nautz & Ulrike Rondorf, 2011. "The (in)stability of money demand in the euro area: lessons from a cross-country analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 38(4), pages 539-553, November.
    36. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1996. "The black market exchange rate and demand for money in Iran," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 171-176.
    37. Michele Fratianni, 2011. "Riflessioni sulla politica economica italiana in occasione del 150esimo anniversario dell'Unita'," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 53, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    38. Virginia Di Nino & Barry Eichengreen & Massimo Sbracia, 2011. "Real exchange rates, trade, and growth: Italy 1861-2011," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 10, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    39. Mcgibany, James M. & Nourzad, Farrokh, 1995. "Exchange rate volatility and the demand for money in the U.S," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 411-425.
    40. Massimo Caruso, 2006. "Stock market fluctuations and money demand in Italy, 1913-2003," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 576, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    41. Bagliano, Fabio-Cesare & Favero, Carlo A., 1992. "Money demand instability, expectations and policy regimes: A note on the case of Italy: 1964-1986," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 331-349, April.
    42. Saten Kumar & Mamta B. Chowdhury & B. Bhaskara Rao, 2013. "Demand for money in the selected OECD countries: a time series panel data approach and structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(14), pages 1767-1776, May.
    43. Sahar Bahmani, 2013. "Exchange rate volatility and demand for money in less developed countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(3), pages 442-452, July.
    44. Gigliobianco Alfredo & Giordano Claire, 2012. "Does Economic Theory Matter in Shaping Banking Regulation? A Case-study of Italy (1861-1936)," Accounting, Economics, and Law: A Convivium, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-78, September.
    45. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Tamazian, Artur & Singh, Prakash, 2009. "Demand for Money in the Asian Countries: A Systems GMM Panel Data Approach and Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 15030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    46. Muscatelli, Vito Antonio & Papi, Luca, 1990. "Cointegration, Financial Innovation and Modelling the Demand for Money in Italy," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 58(3), pages 242-259, September.
    47. Giuseppina Gianfreda & Nathalie Janson, 2001. "Le banche di emissione in Italia tra il 1861 e il 1893: un caso di concorrenza?," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 91(1), pages 15-74, January.
    48. Fratianni, Michele & Spinelli, Franco, 2001. "Fiscal Dominance and Money Growth in Italy: The Long Record," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 252-272, April.
    49. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    50. Muscatelli, Vito Antonio & Spinelli, Franco, 1996. "Modeling Monetary Trends in Italy Using Historical Data: The Demand for Broad Money 1861-1990," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(3), pages 579-596, July.
    51. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Shabsigh, Ghiath, 1996. "The demand for money in Japan: Evidence from cointegration analysis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, March.
    52. Eugenio Gaiotti & Alessandro Secchi, 2012. "Monetary policy and fiscal dominance in Italy from the early 1970s to the adoption of the euro: a review," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 141, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    53. Massimo Caruso, 2006. "Stock Market Fluctuations and Money Demand in Italy, 1913–2003," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 35(1), pages 1-47, February.
    54. Michele Fratianni & Franco Spinelli, 1984. "Italy in the Gold Standard Period, 1861-1914," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Classical Gold Standard, 1821-1931, pages 405-454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    55. Dooley, Michael P & Spinelli, Franco, 1989. "The Early Stages of Financial Innovation and Money Demand in France and Italy," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 57(2), pages 107-124, June.
    56. Finicelli, Andrea & Liccardi, Alessandra & Sbracia, Massimo, 2005. "A New Indicator of Competitiveness for Italy and the Main Industrial and Emerging Countries," MPRA Paper 4703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    57. McNown, Robert & Wallace, Myles S., 1992. "Cointegration tests of a long-run relation between money demand and the effective exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 107-114, February.
    58. Abdur Chowdhury, 1995. "The demand for money in a small open economy: The case of Switzerland," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 131-144, April.
    59. M. Sarcinelli, 1995. "Italian monetary policy in the '80s and '90s: the revision of the modus operandi," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 48(195), pages 397-422.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ebadi, Esmaeil, 2018. "On the Effect of Government Spending on Money Demand in the United States: An ARDL Cointegration Approach," MPRA Paper 86399, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Chaido Dritsaki & Melina Dritsaki, 2020. "The Long-run Money Demand Function: Empirical Evidence from Italy," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 186-195.
    3. Adnan A. Saed & Walid Al-Shawaqfeh, 2017. "The Stability of Money Demand Function in Jordan: Evidence from the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 331-337.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frauke Dobnik, 2013. "Long-run money demand in OECD countries: what role do common factors play?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 89-113, August.
    2. Frauke Dobnik, 2011. "OLong-run Money Demand in OECD Countries – Cross-Member Cointegration," Ruhr Economic Papers 0237, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    3. repec:zbw:rwirep:0237 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Chaido Dritsaki & Melina Dritsaki, 2020. "The Long-run Money Demand Function: Empirical Evidence from Italy," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 186-195.
    5. Dobnik, Frauke, 2011. "Long-run Money Demand in OECD Countries – Cross-Member Cointegration," Ruhr Economic Papers 237, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    6. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Padhan, Hemachandra & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2020. "Understanding the time-frequency dynamics of money demand, oil prices and macroeconomic variables: The case of India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Helmi Hamdi & Ali Said & Rashid Sbia, 2015. "Empirical Evidence on the Long-Run Money Demand Function in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 603-612.
    8. Ahmad Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon, 2015. "Demand for broad money in Singapore: does wealth matter?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(3), pages 557-573, July.
    9. Salvatore Capasso & Oreste Napolitano, 2012. "Testing for the stability of money demand in Italy: has the Euro influenced the monetary transmission mechanism?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(24), pages 3121-3133, August.
    10. BENDOB, Ali & SI MOHEMMED, Kamel, 2014. "La relation entre le taux de change parallèle et la demande de la monnaie Cas de l’Algérie durant 1980-2010: Une approche économétrique [The relationship between the parallel exchange rate and dema," MPRA Paper 76085, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    11. Haider Mahmood & Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb, 2018. "Asymmetrical effects of real exchange rate on the money demand in Saudi Arabia: A non-linear ARDL approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(11), pages 1-12, November.
    12. Samih Antoine Azar & Fadi Asrawi & Emad Gharzuddine, 2017. "Economic Integration in the Six Middle Eastern Gulf Countries: A Look from the Perspective of Money Demand," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 16(3), pages 189-218, December.
    13. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    14. Mahmood, Haider, 2016. "Revisiting Money Demand Function for GCC Countries and Testing its Stability," MPRA Paper 109457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hafez Rehman, 2005. "Stability of the money demand function in Asian developing countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 773-792.
    16. Sharifi-Renani, Hosein, 2007. "Demand for money in Iran: An ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 8224, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Saten Kumar & Mamta B. Chowdhury & B. Bhaskara Rao, 2013. "Demand for money in the selected OECD countries: a time series panel data approach and structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(14), pages 1767-1776, May.
    18. Nicholas Apergis, 2015. "Long-run estimates of money demand: new evidence from East Asian countries and the presence of structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(31), pages 3276-3291, July.
    19. Kjosevski Jordan & Petkovski Mihail & Naumovska Elena, 2016. "The Stability of Long-Run Money Demand in Western Balkan Countries: An Empirical Panel Investigation," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 11(2), pages 61-70, December.
    20. Simplice Asongu & Oludele Folarin & Nicholas Biekpe, 2019. "The stability of demand for money in the proposed Southern African Monetary Union," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(2), pages 222-244, August.
    21. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Kumar, Saten, 2009. "A panel data approach to the demand for money and the effects of financial reforms in the Asian countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1012-1017, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Italy; Money demand stability; Monetary aggregates; Exchange rate; ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:cliomt:v:11:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11698-016-0143-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.