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The Exchange Rates and Monetary Dynamics in Pakistan: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach

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  • Muhammad Arshad Khan

    () (Government Post-graduate College, Muzaffarabad (Azad Kashmir), Pakistan.)

  • Muhammad Zabir Sajjid

    () (Government Post-graduate College, Muzaffarabad (Azad Kashmir), Pakistan.)

Abstract

In this paper we investigate both the long and short-run relationship between real money balances, real income, inflation rate, foreign interest rate and real effective exchange rate with reference to Pakistan over the period 1982Q2-2002Q4 using ARDL approach which is a newly developed econometric technique. The estimated results indicate that in the long-run real income, inflation rate, foreign interest rate and real effective exchange rate have a significant impact on real money balances in Pakistan. The dynamics of real money demand show that the effects of rate of inflation, foreign interest rate and the real effective exchange rate are much smaller in the short run than long run. The results also reveal that the demand for real money balances in Pakistan is stable, despite the economic reforms pursued by the government since the late 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Arshad Khan & Muhammad Zabir Sajjid, 2005. "The Exchange Rates and Monetary Dynamics in Pakistan: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 10(2), pages 87-99, Jul-Dec.
  • Handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:10:y:2005:i:2:p:87-99
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:ksp:journ2:v:4:y:2017:i:2:p:167-192 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Bernhard Ozofere Ishioro, 2015. "The Long-Run Relationship between Foreign Reserves Inflows and Domestic Credit: Evidence from a Small Open Economy," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, pages 18-38.
    3. repec:ksp:journ6:v:4:y:2017:i:1:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. KHAN, Muhammad Arshad, 2008. "Long-Run And Short-Run Dynamics Of Foreign Exchange Reserves Flows And Domestic Credit In Pakistan," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(1), pages 61-78.
    5. Birendra Bahadur Budha, 2013. "Demand for Money in Nepal: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 25(1), pages 21-36, April.
    6. Dawood MAMOON & Umbreen IFTIKHAR & Muhammad Shahid HASSAN, 2017. "Relationship of Fiscal Discipline and Household Income on Money Demand Function in Sri Lanka," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1-9, March.
    7. Birendra Bahadur Budha, 2012. "A Panel Data Analysis of Foreign Trade Determinants of Nepal: Gravity Model Approach," NRB Working Paper 12/2012, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department.
    8. Hassan, Shahid & Ali, Umbreen & Dawood, Mamoon, 2016. "Measuring Money Demand Function in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 75496, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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