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The demand for money in Turkey and currency substitution

  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee
  • Muge Karacal

Over the last three decades, the Turkish economy has experienced severe macro-shocks, among which depreciation of the Turkish lira is the most noticeable one. The Turkish lira (TL) has depreciated from 13 TL per US dollar in 1973 to more than 1.5 million TL per dollar today. It is expected that because of these shocks, some of the macro-relationships could suffer from structural instability which makes policy formulation and predictions difficult. This paper considers the demand for money in Turkey. To take account of currency substitution, the demand for money that includes the exchange rate in addition to income, interest rate and inflation rate is estimated. After incorporating the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests in bounds testing approach for cointegration, it is shown that in Turkey for a successful and effective monetary policy, the monetary authorities would rather concentrate on M1 because not only is it cointegrated with its determinants and it is stable, all four determinants belong to the cointegrating space.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 13 (2006)
Issue (Month): 10 ()
Pages: 635-642

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:13:y:2006:i:10:p:635-642
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  1. Dennis Hoffman & Robert H. Rasche, 1989. "Long-run Income and Interest Elasticities of Money Demand in the United States," NBER Working Papers 2949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Goswami, Gour Gobinda, 2004. "Exchange rate sensitivity of Japan's bilateral trade flows," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January.
  3. Ozatay, Fatih, 1997. "Sustainability of fiscal deficits, monetary policy, and inflation stabilization: The case of Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 661-681, December.
  4. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Shabsigh, Ghiath, 1996. "The demand for money in Japan: Evidence from cointegration analysis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, March.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-334, June.
  6. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Miquel-Angel Galindo Martin & Farhang Niroomand, 1998. "Exchange rate sensitivity of the demand for money in Spain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 607-612.
  8. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Bohl, Martin T., 2000. "German monetary unification and the stability of the German M3 money demand function," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 203-208, February.
  9. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1996. "The black market exchange rate and demand for money in Iran," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 171-176.
  10. Lewis, Mervyn K. & Mizen, Paul D., 2000. "Monetary Economics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198290629.
  11. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 2001. "How stable is M2 money demand function in Japan?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 455-461, December.
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