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Testing the Lucas Critique for the Turkish Money Demand Function

Listed author(s):
  • Levent KORAP

    (Gaziantep Üniversitesi İslahiye İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi İktisat Bölümü)

  • Metin YILDIRIM

    (Gaziantep Üniversitesi)

This paper aims to test the prevalence of the Lucas critique by use of an applied modelling approach. The Turkish narrow money demand is chosen for investigation purposes and an extensive statistical-based econometric application has been carried out to observe whether the model in question has been exposed to the content of such a critique. The results confirm the theory to explain the behavioral foundations of aggregate monetary economics approaches and reveal that no evidence can be found in favor of the nonrejection of the Lucas critique that leads us to infer that the modelling attempt can be considered by the researcher a feedback model which is able to encompass a whole class of expectation models.

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Article provided by Bilgesel Yayincilik in its journal İktisat İşletme ve Finans.

Volume (Year): 27 (2012)
Issue (Month): 318 ()
Pages: 57-82

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Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:27:y:2012:i:318:p:57-82
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://iif.com.tr
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  1. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
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  6. Hendry, David F. & Ericsson, Neil R., 1991. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 833-881, May.
  7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
  8. Ramachandran, M., 2004. "Do broad money, output, and prices stand for a stable relationship in India?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 983-1001, December.
  9. Dan Ben-David & Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1998. "Unit Roots, Postwar Slowdowns and Long-Run Growth: Evidence from Two Structural Breaks," NBER Working Papers 6397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Engle, Robert F. & Hendry, David F., 1993. "Testing superexogeneity and invariance in regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 119-139, March.
  11. Sarno, Lucio, 1999. "Adjustment Costs and Nonlinear Dynamics in the Demand for Money: Italy, 1861-1991," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 155-177, April.
  12. Zenon Kontolemis, 2002. "Money Demand in the Euro Area; Where Do We Stand (Today)?," IMF Working Papers 02/185, .
  13. Şenay ÜÇDOĞRUK, 1996. "Türkiye''de Para Talebi Modeli: Eşbütünleşme Analizi İlişkileri," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 11(126), pages 30-40.
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  15. Teräsvirta, Timo & Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 1998. "Nonlinear error-correction and the UK demand for broad money, 1878-1993," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 265, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 30 Nov 1998.
  16. Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March.
  17. repec:eme:jespps:v:30:y:2003:i:5:p:514-534 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Stanley, T. D., 2000. "An empirical critique of the Lucas critique," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 91-107.
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  20. Hurn, A S & Muscatelli, V A, 1992. "Testing Superexogeneity: The Demand for Broad Money in the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(4), pages 543-556, November.
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  24. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muge Karacal, 2006. "The demand for money in Turkey and currency substitution," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(10), pages 635-642.
  25. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
  26. Christian Dreger & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2007. "Long-Run Money Demand in the New EU Member States with Exchange Rate Effects," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 45(2), pages 75-94, April.
  27. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  28. Erdal Ozmen, 1998. "Is currency seigniorage exogenous for inflation tax in Turkey?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 545-552.
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