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Car ownership and use in Britain: a comparison of the empirical results of alternative cointegration estimation methods and forecasts

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  • Peter Romilly
  • Haiyan Song
  • Xiaming Liu

Abstract

This paper addresses two problems faced by many forecasters in the transport sector, namely how to use a relatively small sample to forecast car ownership over a long period of time and avoid the difficulties caused by spurious or nonsense regressions. Five alternative estimation methods are used to test for cointegrating relationships between per capita car ownership (and use) and real per capita personable disposable income, real motoring costs and real bus fares. These are the Engle-Granger two-stage, the Phillips-Hansen fully modified, the Wickens-Breusch one-stage, the autoregressive distributed lag, and the Johansen maximum likelihood methods. The corresponding error correction models are estimated, and a comparison made between the derived short- and long-run demand elasticities for car ownership and use. The ex-post forecasting performance of the error correction models, together with an ARIMA model specification, is evaluated using a number of performance criteria. The long-range time series forecasts obtained from the cointegrating regressions are compared with those from the cross-sectional approach used by the UK Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions, and the policy implications discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Romilly & Haiyan Song & Xiaming Liu, 2001. "Car ownership and use in Britain: a comparison of the empirical results of alternative cointegration estimation methods and forecasts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(14), pages 1803-1818.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:33:y:2001:i:14:p:1803-1818
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840011021708
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1996. "Testing for the 'Existence of a Long-run Relationship'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9622, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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    1. Jammazi, Rania & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "A wavelet-based nonlinear ARDL model for assessing the exchange rate pass-through to crude oil prices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 173-187.
    2. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Amine Lahiani & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ricardo M. Sousa, "undated". "Asymmetric and nonlinear pass-through of energy prices to CO2 emission allowance prices," NIPE Working Papers 05/2014, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    3. Apergis, Nicholas & Cooray, Arusha, 2015. "Asymmetric interest rate pass-through in the U.S., the U.K. and Australia: New evidence from selected individual banks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 155-172.
    4. Theologos Dergiades & Lefteris Tsoulfidis, 2011. "Revisiting residential demand for electricity in Greece: new evidence from the ARDL approach to cointegration analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 511-531, October.
    5. Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2012. "What drives housing price dynamics in Greece: New evidence from asymmetric ARDL cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1064-1069.
    6. Godwin Effiong Akpan & Usenobong Friday Akpan, 2012. "Electricity Consumption, Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in Nigeria," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 292-306.
    7. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Nor, Safwan Mohd & Ferrer, Roman & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2017. "Asymmetric determinants of CDS spreads: U.S. industry-level evidence through the NARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 211-230.
    8. Katrakilidis Constantinos & Trachanas Emmanouil, 2011. "Has the Accession of Greece in the EU Influenced the Dynamics of the Country’s “Twin Deficits”? An Empirical Investigation," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 45-54.
    9. Romilly, Peter, 2004. "Welfare evaluation with a road capacity constraint," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 287-303, May.
    10. Sy-Hoa HO, 2015. "Long-run determinants of sovereign bond index in emerging market: New evidence from asymmetric and nonlinear pass-through," Documents de recherche 15-02, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    11. Adnen Ben Nasr & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Seyi Saint Akadiri, 2018. "Asymmetric Effects of Inequality on Per Capita Real GDP of the United States," Working Papers 201820, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Fousekis, Panos & Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2016. "Vertical price transmission in the US beef sector: Evidence from the nonlinear ARDL model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 499-506.
    13. Theologos Dergiades & Lefteris Tsoulfidis, 2009. "Revisiting Residential Demand for Electricity in Greece: New Evidence from the ARDL Approach to Cointegration," Discussion Paper Series 2009_12, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jun 2009.
    14. Winston Koh & Roberto Mariano & Yiu Kuen Tse, 2007. "Open vs. sealed-bid auctions: testing for revenue equivalence under Singapore's vehicle quota system," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 125-134.
    15. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "An empirical analysis of energy cost pass-through to CO2 emission prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 149-156.
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    19. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-082 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "Fiscal deficits under financial pressure and insolvency: Evidence for Italy, Greece and Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 730-749.
    21. Kemal Çelik & Erkan Oktay & Muhsin Doğan Ebül & Ömer Özhancı, 2015. "Factors influencing consumers’ light commercial vehicle purchase intention in a developing country," Management & Marketing, De Gruyter Open, vol. 10(2), pages 148-162, September.

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