IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/apltrx/0401.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling the dynamics of import in the Russian Federation using the error correction model

Author

Listed:
  • Polbin, Andrey

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA). Gaidar Institute; Moscow, Russian Federation)

  • Fokin, Nikita

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA). Moscow, Russian Federation)

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate the error correction model for aggregate import in the Russian Federation. In the first step, using DOLS, the long-term function of demand for imports is estimated, which depends on the indicator of aggregate expenses and relative prices, in the second step, the parameters of short-run dynamics are estimated using OLS and GMM. Six alternative indicators are considered as a variable of aggregated expenses. The best determinant of dynamics of import from the point of view of minimizing the errors of prediction and nowcasting is GDP with the exception of government spending.

Suggested Citation

  • Polbin, Andrey & Fokin, Nikita, 2020. "Modeling the dynamics of import in the Russian Federation using the error correction model," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 59, pages 88-112.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0401
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pe.cemi.rssi.ru/pe_2020_59_088-112.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Skrobotov, Anton, 2020. "Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 58, pages 96-141.
    2. Carone, Giuseppe, 1996. "Modeling the U.S. demand for imports through cointegration and error correction," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-48, February.
    3. Nasri Harb, 2005. "Import demand in heterogeneous panel setting," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(20), pages 2407-2415.
    4. David Altig & Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Jesper Linde, 2011. "Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 225-247, April.
    5. Knobel, Alexander, 2011. "Estimation of import demand function in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 24(4), pages 3-26.
    6. Nadezhda Ivanova, 2007. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Russia: Trade-Balance Approach," Working Papers w0102, New Economic School (NES).
    7. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 1, pages 3-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Tang, Tuck Cheong, 2003. "An empirical analysis of China's aggregate import demand function," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 142-163.
    9. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 111-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2014. "On infimum Dickey–Fuller unit root tests allowing for a trend break under the null," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 235-242.
    11. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    12. Clarida, Richard H, 1996. "Consumption, Import Prices, and the Demand for Imported Consumer Durables: A Structural Econometric Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 369-374, August.
    13. Karl Whelan, 2002. "A Guide To U.S. Chain Aggregated Nipa Data," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 48(2), pages 217-233, June.
    14. Clarida, Richard H, 1994. "Cointegration, Aggregate Consumption, and the Demand for Imports: A Structural Econometric Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 298-308, March.
    15. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    16. Pavel Kadochnikov, 2006. "An Analysis of Import Substitution in Russia after the 1998 Crisis," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 95, pages 148-148.
    17. Warner, Dennis & Kreinin, Mordechai E, 1983. "Determinants of International Trade Flows," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 96-104, February.
    18. Amano, Robert A. & Wirjanto, Tony S., 1997. "Adjustment costs and import demand behavior: evidence from Canada and the United States," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 461-476, June.
    19. Christian Gianella & Corinne Chanteloup, 2007. "Assessing Russia's Non-fuel Trade Elasticities: Does the Russian Economy React 'Normally' to Exchange Rate Movements?," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 153-166.
    20. Abdelhak Senhadji, 1998. "Time-Series Estimation of Structural Import Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 236-268, June.
    21. David Altig & Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Jesper Linde, 2011. "Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 225-247, April.
    22. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, March.
    23. E. Gurvich & I. Prilepskiy., 2016. "The impact of financial sanctions on the Russian economy," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 1.
    24. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    25. Nadezhda Ivanova, 2007. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Russia: Trade-Balance Approach," Working Papers w0102, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    26. Matthieu Bussière & Giovanni Callegari & Fabio Ghironi & Giulia Sestieri & Norihiko Yamano, 2013. "Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-2009," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 118-151, July.
    27. James G. MacKinnon, 2010. "Critical Values For Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maiorova, Ksenia & Fokin, Nikita, 2020. "Наукастинг Темпов Роста Стоимостных Объемов Экспорта И Импорта По Товарным Группам [Nowcasting the growth rates of the export and import by commodity groups]," MPRA Paper 109557, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas Reininger, 2008. "Factors Driving Import Demand in Selected Central, Eastern and Southeastern European Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 100-125.
    2. Philip Chimobi Omoke, 2012. "Aggregate Import Demand and Expenditure Components in Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 1(1), pages 149-163, March.
    3. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Nov), pages 609-642.
    4. Santos-Paulino, Amelia U., 2002. "The Effects of Trade Liberalization on Imports in Selected Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 959-974, June.
    5. Muhammad Ahad & Zaheer Anwer, 2021. "Asymmetric impact of oil price on trade balance in BRICS countries: Multiplier dynamic analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2177-2197, April.
    6. Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2005. "A Resolution of the Fisher Effect Puzzle: A Comparison of Estimators," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp067, IIIS.
    7. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    8. Dierk HERZER & Felicitas NOWAK‐LEHMANN D. & Boriss SILIVERSTOVS, 2006. "Export‐Led Growth In Chile: Assessing The Role Of Export Composition In Productivity Growth," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(3), pages 306-328, September.
    9. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2004. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: a closer look at panels," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 867-895, October.
    10. Scheiblecker, Marcus, 2013. "Between cointegration and multicointegration: Modelling time series dynamics by cumulative error correction models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 511-517.
    11. Iris Claus, 1997. "A Measure of Underlying Inflation in the United States," Staff Working Papers 97-20, Bank of Canada.
    12. Chang, Kai & Ge, Fangping & Zhang, Chao & Wang, Weihong, 2018. "The dynamic linkage effect between energy and emissions allowances price for regional emissions trading scheme pilots in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 415-425.
    13. Stirböck, Claudia, 2006. "How strong is the impact of exports and other demand components on German import demand? Evidence from euro-area and non-euro-area imports," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,39, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 2000. "A Reassessment of Long-Run Elasticities of Japanese Import Demand," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 625-639, September.
    15. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2005. "Estimating income and price elasticities of imports for Fiji in a cointegration framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-438, May.
    16. Federico Mandelman & Pau Rabanal & Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramirez & Diego Vilan, 2011. "Investment Specific Technology Shocks and International Business Cycles: An Empirical Assessment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 136-155, January.
    17. Khurram Ashfaq Baluch & Syed Kalim Hyder Bukhari, 2012. "Price and Income Elasticity of Imports: The Case of Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 48, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    18. Philip Chimobi Omoke, 2012. "Bank Credit and Aggregate Import Demand in Nigeria: A Cointegration Analysis," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 3(3), pages 28-37, June.
    19. Chen, Ping-Yu & Chen, Bo-Yu & Tsai, Pei-Hui & Chen, Chi-Chung, 2015. "Evaluating the impacts of a carbon tax on imported forest products—evidence from Taiwan," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 45-52.
    20. Tarlok Singh, 2012. "Does public capital crowd-out or crowd-in private capital in India?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 109-133, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    import demand; nowcasting; GMM; cointegration; error correction model; Russian economy; real exchange rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0401. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://appliedeconometrics.cemi.rssi.ru/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anatoly Peresetsky (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://appliedeconometrics.cemi.rssi.ru/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.