Between Cointegration and Multicointegration. Modelling Time Series Dynamics by Cumulative Error Correction Models
This paper proposes a cumulative error correction model where the summing weights follow a geometrically decreasing function of prior deviations from equilibrium and are estimated from the data. It is shown that this approach is located in between the traditional error correction model – where no weight is given to deviations from steady state prior to the most recent period – and the error correction model based on the idea of multicointegration. The presented form of accumulation does not change the order of integration of the series, like in the multicointegration approach of Granger and Lee (1989). Based on this model type, the relationship between US private consumption and real disposable income of private households is estimated. The short-run forces setting-off last period's deviations are much smaller than a VEC and a conventional single equation ECM suggests. Furthermore, the proposed model outperforms both others in respect of its forecasting power.
|Date of creation:||14 Jun 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Arsenal Object 20, A-1030 Wien|
Phone: (+43 1) 798 26 01-0
Fax: (+43 1) 798 93 86
Web page: http://www.wifo.ac.at/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
- B. Bhaskara Rao, 2007.
"Estimating short and long-run relationships: a guide for the applied economist,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(13), pages 1613-1625.
- Bhaskara Rao, 2005. "Estimating Short and Long Run Relationships: A Guide to the Applied Economist," Econometrics 0508013, EconWPA.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Engsted, Tom & Gonzalo, Jesus & Haldrup, Niels, 1997. "Testing for multicointegration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 259-266, November.
- Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006.
"Multicointegration in US consumption data,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 819-833.
- Boriss Siliverstovs, "undated". "Multicointegration in US consumption data," Economics Working Papers 2001-6, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Boriss Siliverstovs, 2003. "Multicointegration in US Consumption Data," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 382, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Franses, Philip Hans & van Oest, Rutger, 2007. "On the econometrics of the geometric lag model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 291-296, May.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993.
"A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "SWDOLS: RATS procedure to estimate cointegrating vectors using dynamic OLS," Statistical Software Components RTS00207, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-276, March.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1989.
"Estimating Long Run Economic Equilibria,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
928, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Ball, Laurence, 2012.
"Short-run money demand,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 622-633.
- Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
- Lucas, Robert E., 1988. "Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 137-167, January.
- Dennis Hoffman & Robert H. Rasche, 1989.
"Long-run Income and Interest Elasticities of Money Demand in the United States,"
NBER Working Papers
2949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hoffman, Dennis L & Rasche, Robert H, 1991. "Long-Run Income and Interest Elasticities of Money Demand in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(4), pages 665-74, November.
- Lee, Tae-Hwy, 1992. "Stock-Flow Relationships in U.S. Housing Construction," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 419-430, August.
- Hayakawa, Kazuhiko & Kurozumi, Eiji, 2008.
"The role of “leads” in the dynamic OLS estimation of cointegrating regression models,"
Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM),
Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 555-560.
- Kazuhiko Hayakawa & Eiji Kurozumi, 2006. "The Role of "Leads" in the Dynamic OLS Estimation of Cointegrating Regression Models," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d06-194, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Hans Christian Kongsted & Heino Bohn Nielsen, 2004. "Analysing I(2) Systems by Transformed Vector Autoregressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 379-397, 07.
- Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1973. "The Demand for Money Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(3), pages 577-646.
- Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
- Lee, Tae-Hwy, 1996. "Stock Adjustment for Multicointegrated Series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 633-639.
- Johansen, Soren, 2006. "Statistical analysis of hypotheses on the cointegrating relations in the I(2) model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 81-115, May.
- Engsted, T. & Johansen, S., 1997. "Granger's Representation Theorem and Multicointegration," Economics Working Papers eco97/15, European University Institute.
- Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2012:i:431. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ilse Schulz)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.