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STLS/US-VECM6.1: a vector error-correction forecasting model of the U. S. economy

  • Dennis L. Hoffman
  • Robert H. Rasche

Any research or policy analysis exercise in economics must be consistent with the time-series properties of observed macroeconomic data. This paper discusses in detail the specification of a six-variable vector error-correction forecasting model. We test for cointegration among those variables: the CPI, the implicit price deflator for GDP, real money balances (M1), the federal funds rate, the yield on long-term (10-year) government bonds, and real GDP. We also examine the estimated dynamic parameters of the vector error correction structure, and analyze the properties of the model residuals in detail; discuss the forecasting performance of the model with particular reference to the 1990-91 recession and the 1994-95 expansion; compare alternative permanent/transitory decompositions of the data series that are implied by the estimated parameters of the model; discuss the role of weak exogeneity in our estimated structure, and the identifying restrictions that are sufficient to determine a 'historical policy rule' within the sample; discuss the conditions required for identification of 'dynamic economic models' from the reduced form VECM structure and apply one set of exactly identifying restrictions to derive impulse response functions for a permanent nominal shock and a permanent real shock; and, report some ex-ante forecasts from recent history.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1997-008.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1997-008
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  1. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56.
  2. ENGLE, Robert F. & HENDRY, David F. & RICHARD, Jean-François, . "Exogeneity," CORE Discussion Papers RP -516, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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  3. Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
  5. Crowder, William J & Hoffman, Dennis L, 1996. "The Long-Run Relationship between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: The Fisher Equation Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 102-18, February.
  6. Gali, Jordi, 1992. "How Well Does the IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 709-38, May.
  7. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  8. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  9. Shiller, Robert & Campbell, John, 1988. "Interpreting Cointegrated Models," Scholarly Articles 3221492, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  10. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  12. Hoffman, Dennis L. & Rasche, Robert H. & Tieslau, Margie A., 1995. "The stability of long-run money demand in five industrial countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 317-339, April.
  13. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 1994. "On the welfare cost of inflation," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 94-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  14. Hoffman, Dennis L & Rasche, Robert H, 1996. "Assessing Forecast Performance in a Cointegrated System," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 495-517, Sept.-Oct.
  15. Huizinga, John & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986. "Monetary policy regime shifts and the unusual behavior of real interest rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 231-274, January.
  16. Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D., 1992. "On the Limitations of Comparing Mean Square Forecast Errors," Economics Series Working Papers 99138, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  17. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-40, September.
  18. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
  19. Robert Ingenito & Bharat Trehan, 1996. "Using monthly data to predict quarterly output," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-11.
  20. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  21. Warne, A., 1993. "A Common Trends Model: Identification, Estimation and Inference," Papers 555, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  22. Hendry, David F & Starr, Ross M, 1993. "The Demand for M1 in the USA: A Reply," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(420), pages 1158-69, September.
  23. Richard G. Anderson, 2006. "Monetary base," Working Papers 2006-049, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  24. Hoffman, Dennis L & Rasche, Robert H, 1991. "Long-Run Income and Interest Elasticities of Money Demand in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(4), pages 665-74, November.
  25. Reifschneider, David L. & Stockton, David J. & Wilcox, David W., 1997. "Econometric models and the monetary policy process," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-37, December.
  26. Fama, Eugene F., 1992. "Transitory variation in investment and output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 467-480, December.
  27. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
  28. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  29. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  30. Horvath, Michael T.K. & Watson, Mark W., 1995. "Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 984-1014, October.
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