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Dinero, Precios, Tasa de Interés y Actividad Económica: Un Modelo del Caso Colombiano

  • José Fernando Escobar R.

    ()

  • Carlos Esteban Posada P.

    ()

A partir de un esquema de oferta y demanda de dinero se estimó un modelo de relaciones de corto y largo plazo entre cinco variables:base monetaria, dinero (M1), tasa de interés, producto y nivel de precios al consumidor (cifras trimestrales desde 1984:I hasta 2003:IV).El modelo es del tipo denominado SVEC (Structural Vector Error Correction). Los parámetros de las funciones de oferta y demanda de dinero son compatibles con las restricciones teóricas convencionales. La estimacion utilizó la metodología de tendencias estocásticas comunes para realizar un análisis de impulso-respuesta y un ejercicio de pronóstico con las posibles variables débilmente exógenas.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 303.

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  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  2. Javier Gómez P., 1998. "La Demanda Por Dinero En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002969, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Martin Schmidt, 2003. "Monetary dynamics: a market approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 139-152.
  4. Anderson, Richard G. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Rasche, Robert H., 2002. "A vector error-correction forecasting model of the US economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 569-598, December.
  5. Fabio Bagliano & Roberto Golinelli & Claudio Morana, 2002. "Core inflation in the Euro area," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 353-357.
  6. P.J.G. Vlaar, 1998. "On the asymptotic distribution of impulse response functions with long run restrictions," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 539, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  7. Martha Misas & Hugo Oliveros, . "Cointegración, exogeneidad y Crítica de Lucas: Funciones de Demanda de Dinero en Colombia: Un ejercicio más," Borradores de Economia 075, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  8. Jacobson, Tor & Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 2002. "Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in an Open Economy," Working Paper Series 134, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  9. Baghestani, Hamid & Mott, Tracy, 1997. "A Cointegration Analysis of the U.S. Money Supply Process," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 269-283, April.
  10. Mellander, Erik & Vredin, A & Warne, A, 1992. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 369-94, Oct.-Dec..
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