IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2013i3p132-143.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inflation Persistence in Nine Latin American Countries: Panel SURKSS Test with a Fourier Function

Author

Listed:
  • Yanli LI, Hongfeng PENG

    (School of Economics and Management, Wuhan University, China.)

  • Hongfeng PENG

    (School of Economics and Management, Wuhan University, China.)

Abstract

This study employs the panel seeming unrelated regression of the Kapetanios-Shin- Snell (SURKSS) test with a Fourier function to investigate the inflation persistence in Nine Latin American Countries over the period of January 1993-January 2012. The empirical results from the univariate unit root and panel-based unit root tests indicate that the inflation rates are non-stationary in these nine countries under study. However, the panel SURKSS test with a Fourier function rejects the null hypothesis of a unit root in Argentina, Dominica, Grenada, Mexico, Saint Lucia and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, while accepting the non-stationarity in other three countries(Chile, Columbia and Costa Rica). We conclude that, among the selected nine Latin American countries, inflation rates of Chile, Columbia and Costa Rica demonstrate high levels of persistence which implies the permanent influence of external shocks on Chile, Columbia and Costa Rica.

Suggested Citation

  • Yanli LI, Hongfeng PENG & Hongfeng PENG, 2013. "Inflation Persistence in Nine Latin American Countries: Panel SURKSS Test with a Fourier Function," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 132-143, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2013:i:3:p:132-143
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef3_13/rjef3_2013p132-143.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hervé Le Bihan & Julien Matheron, 2012. "Price Stickiness and Sectoral Inflation Persistence: Additional Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1427-1442, October.
    2. Amano, Robert, 2007. "Inflation persistence and monetary policy: A simple result," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 26-31, January.
    3. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    4. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July.
    5. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
    6. Kirstin Hubrich & Guenter Beck & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2000. "Regional Inflation Dynamics within and across Euro Area Countries and a Comparison with the US," Regional and Urban Modeling 283600037, EcoMod.
    7. Swamy, P A V B, 1970. "Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(2), pages 311-323, March.
    8. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., 2010. "Inflation Persistence," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 9, pages 423-486, Elsevier.
    9. Conrad, Christian & Eife, Thomas A., 2012. "Explaining inflation-gap persistence by a time-varying Taylor rule," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 419-428.
    10. repec:bla:reviec:v:9:y:2001:i:3:p:482-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    12. M. Hashem Pesaran & Aman Ullah & Takashi Yamagata, 2008. "A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(1), pages 105-127, March.
    13. John C. Driscoll & Steinar Holden, 2004. "Fairness and Inflation Persistence," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 240-251, 04/05.
    14. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    15. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2008. "Testing slope homogeneity in large panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 50-93, January.
    16. Zhang, Chengsi, 2011. "Inflation persistence, inflation expectations, and monetary policy in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 622-629, January.
    17. Daniel Chiquiar & Antonio Noriega & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010. "A time-series approach to test a change in inflation persistence: the Mexican experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(24), pages 3067-3075.
    18. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060.
    19. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Lee, Hsiu-Yun, 2009. "A revisit to the non-linear mean reversion of real exchange rates: Evidence from a series-specific non-linear panel unit-root test," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 591-601, December.
    20. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    21. Imbs, Jean & Jondeau, Eric & Pelgrin, Florian, 2011. "Sectoral Phillips curves and the aggregate Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 328-344.
    22. Guenter W. Beck & Kirstin Hubrich & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2009. "Regional inflation dynamics within and across euro area countries and a comparison with the United States [‘On the relevance and nature of regional inflation differentials: The case of Spain’, Banc," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 24(57), pages 142-184.
    23. Chu, Hsiao-Ping & Chang, Tsangyao & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Yuan, Young, 2007. "Mean reversion in the current account of forty-eight african countries: Evidence from the Panel SURADF test," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 384(2), pages 485-492.
    24. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Koukouritakis, Minoas, 2013. "Exchange rate misalignment and inflation rate persistence: Evidence from Latin American countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 202-218.
    25. Gerlach, Stefan & Tillmann, Peter, 2012. "Inflation targeting and inflation persistence in Asia–Pacific," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 360-373.
    26. Thomas,Alex M., 2021. "Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108731997, September.
    27. Khan, Hashmat, 2001. "Price stickiness, inflation, and persistence in real exchange rate fluctuations: cross-country results," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 247-253, May.
    28. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The persistence of inflation and the cost of disinflation," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 3-16.
    29. Janice Boucher Breuer & Robert McNown & Myles S. Wallace, 2001. "Misleading Inferences from Panel Unit‐Root Tests with an Illustration from Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 482-493, August.
    30. Meller, Barbara & Nautz, Dieter, 2012. "Inflation persistence in the Euro area before and after the European Monetary Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1170-1176.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oladapo Gbenga Awolaja & OlaOluwa Simon Yaya & Ahamuefula Ephraim Ogbonna & Solomon Onuche Joseph & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2021. "Unemployment hysteresis in Middle East and North Africa countries: panel SUR-based unit root test with a Fourier function," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 318-334, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Geronikolaou, George & Spyromitros, Eleftherios & Tsintzos, Panagiotis, 2016. "Inflation persistence: The path of labor market structural reforms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 317-322.
    2. Boubaker Heni & Canarella Giorgio & Gupta Rangan & Miller Stephen M., 2017. "Time-varying persistence of inflation: evidence from a wavelet-based approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 1-18, September.
    3. María Dolores Gadea & Laura Mayoral, 2006. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    4. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Inflation Persistence and Structural Breaks: The Experience of Inflation Targeting Countries and the US," Working papers 2016-11, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    5. Canarella, Giorgio & Miller, Stephen M., 2017. "Inflation targeting and inflation persistence: New evidence from fractional integration and cointegration," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 45-62.
    6. Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Srinivasan, Naveen & Sofat, Prakriti, 2006. "UK Inflation Persistence: Policy or Nature?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5608, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Qin, Li & Sidiropoulos, Moïse & Spyromitros, Eleftherios, 2013. "Robust monetary policy under model uncertainty and inflation persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 721-728.
    8. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Inflation Targeting: New Evidence from Fractional Integration and Cointegration," Working papers 2016-08, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    9. Manuchehr Irandoust, 2019. "Saving and investment causality: implications for financial integration in transition countries of Eastern Europe," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 397-416, April.
    10. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    11. Cassou, Steven P. & Vázquez Pérez, Jesús, 2010. "New Keynesian Model Features that Can Reproduce Lead, Lag and Persistence Patterns," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    12. Chia-I Pan & Tsangyao Chang & Yemane Wolde-Rufael, 2015. "Military Spending and Economic Growth in the Middle East Countries: Bootstrap Panel Causality Test," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 443-456, August.
    13. Ming Zhong & Tsangyao Chang & D. P. Tang & Yemane Wolde-Rufael, 2015. "The causal nexus between military spending and unemployment in the G7: a bootstrap panel causality test," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 609-622, December.
    14. Mehmet Akif DESTEK, 2018. "Dimensions of globalization and income inequality in transition economies: taking into account cross-sectional dependence," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 9, pages 5-25, December.
    15. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco & Beqiraj, Elton, 2020. "Price and wage inflation persistence across countries and monetary regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    16. Mutascu, Mihai, 2016. "A bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis of energy consumption and economic growth in the G7 countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 166-171.
    17. Ozcan, Burcu & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2019. "Renewable energy consumption-economic growth nexus in emerging countries: A bootstrap panel causality test," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 30-37.
    18. Chen, Sen-Sung & Cheng, Shu-Ching & Pan, Guochen & Wu, Tsung-Pao, 2013. "The relationship between globalization and insurance activities: A panel data analysis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 151-157.
    19. Schneider, Nicolas & Strielkowski, Wadim, 2023. "Modelling the unit root properties of electricity data—A general note on time-domain applications," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 618(C).
    20. Wieland, Volker & Cwik, Tobias & Müller, Gernot J. & Schmidt, Sebastian & Wolters, Maik, 2012. "A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 523-541.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation persistence; panel SURKSS test; Fourier function; Latin American Countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2013:i:3:p:132-143. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.