IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/awi/wpaper/0521.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Explaining Inflation-Gap Persistence by a Time-Varying Taylor Rule

Author

Listed:
  • Conrad, Christian
  • Eife, Thomas A.

Abstract

In a simple New Keynesian model, we derive a closed form solution for the inflation-gap persistence parameter as a function of the policy weights in the central bank’s Taylor rule. By estimating the time-varying weights that the FED attaches to inflation and the output gap, we show that the empirically observed changes in U.S. inflation-gap persistence during the period 1975 to 2010 can be well explained by changes in the conduct of monetary policy. Our findings are in line with Benati’s (2008) view that inflation persistence should not be considered a structural parameter in the sense of Lucas.

Suggested Citation

  • Conrad, Christian & Eife, Thomas A., 2012. "Explaining Inflation-Gap Persistence by a Time-Varying Taylor Rule," Working Papers 0521, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:awi:wpaper:0521
    Note: This paper is part of http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/view/schriftenreihen/sr-3.html
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn=urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-opus-131170
    File Function: Frontdoor page on HeiDOK
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/13117/1/Conrad_Eife_2012_dp521.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
    2. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    3. Michael Woodford, 1998. "Control of the Public Debt: A Requirement for Price Stability?," International Economic Association Series, in: Guillermo Calvo & Mervyn King (ed.), The Debt Burden and its Consequences for Monetary Policy, chapter 5, pages 117-158, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Troy Davig & Taeyoung Doh, 2014. "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and Inflation Persistence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(5), pages 862-875, December.
    5. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    6. Molodtsova, Tanya & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2008. "Taylor rules with real-time data: A tale of two countries and one exchange rate," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 63-79, October.
    7. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January.
    8. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    9. Campbell, John Y. (ed.), 2008. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226092119, December.
    10. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-162, April.
    11. Kang Kyu Ho & Kim Chang-Jin & Morley James, 2009. "Changes in U.S. Inflation Persistence," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2024. "Time-varying parameters in monetary policy rules: a GMM approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 51(9), pages 148-176, January.
    2. Glas, Alexander & Hartmann, Matthias, 2016. "Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 215-228.
    3. Geronikolaou, George & Spyromitros, Eleftherios & Tsintzos, Panagiotis, 2016. "Inflation persistence: The path of labor market structural reforms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 317-322.
    4. Baaziz, Yosra & Labidi, Moez & Lahiani, Amine, 2013. "Does the South African Reserve Bank follow a nonlinear interest rate reaction function?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 272-282.
    5. Conrad, Christian & Hartmann, Matthias, 2019. "On the determinants of long-run inflation uncertainty: Evidence from a panel of 17 developed economies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 233-250.
    6. Yanli LI, Hongfeng PENG & Hongfeng PENG, 2013. "Inflation Persistence in Nine Latin American Countries: Panel SURKSS Test with a Fourier Function," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 132-143, October.
    7. Edward N. Gamber & Jeffrey P. Liebner & Julie K. Smith, 2016. "Inflation persistence: revisited," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 25-44.
      • Edward N. Gamber & Jeffrey P. Liebner & Julie K. Smith, 2013. "Inflation Persistence: Revisited," Working Papers 2013-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    8. Conrad, Christian & Hartmann, Matthias, 2014. "Cross-sectional evidence on the relation between monetary policy, macroeconomic conditions and low-frequency inflation uncertainty," Working Papers 0574, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    9. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2018. "U.S. wage growth and nonlinearities: The roles of inflation and unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 273-292.
    10. Yosra Baaziz & Moez Labidi, 2016. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: An Essay in the Comparative Study on Egyptian and Tunisian Central Banks," Economies, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-18, April.
    11. Yosra Baaziz, 2015. "Estimating Interest Rate Setting Behavior in Brazil: A LSTR Model Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-17, April.
    12. Bogdan CAPRARU & Norel Ionut MOISE & Andrei RADULESCU, 2015. "The Monetary Policy Of The National Bank Of Romania In The Inflation Targeting Era. A Taylor Rule Approach," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 16, pages 91-102, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 341-370, February.
    2. Yamin Ahmad & Olena Mykhaylova, 2015. "Exploring International Differences in Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 1509, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    3. Ahmad, Yamin S. & Staveley-O’Carroll, Olena M., 2017. "Exploring international differences in inflation dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 115-135.
    4. Molodtsova, Tanya & Papell, David H., 2009. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability with Taylor rule fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 167-180, April.
    5. Ana Beatriz Galvao & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2010. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Regimes and the Great Moderation," Economics Working Papers ECO2010/22, European University Institute.
    6. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April.
    7. Baele, Lieven & Bekaert, Geert & Cho, Seonghoon & Inghelbrecht, Koen & Moreno, Antonio, 2015. "Macroeconomic regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 51-71.
    8. Martin Melecký & Diego Rodríguez Palenzuela & Ulf Söderström, 2009. "Inflation Target Transparency and the Macroeconomy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 10, pages 371-411, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Cúrdia, Vasco & Ferrero, Andrea & Ng, Ging Cee & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2015. "Has U.S. monetary policy tracked the efficient interest rate?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 72-83.
    10. Andrew T. Levin & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?," Working Papers 2002-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    11. Felipe Morandé Lavín & Mauricio Tejada, 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty for Conducting Monetary Policy in Chile," Working Papers wp285, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    12. Gbaguidi DAVID, 2011. "Expectations Impact On The Effectiveness Of The Inflation-Real Activity Trade-Off," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 2(2), pages 141-181.
    13. Belomestny, Denis & Krymova, Ekaterina & Polbin, Andrey, 2021. "Bayesian TVP-VARX models with time invariant long-run multipliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    14. Kuo‐Hsuan Chin, 2022. "Inflation persistence and monetary policy: DSGE‐VAR approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(6), pages 715-729, December.
    15. Baxa Jaromír & Plašil Miroslav & Vašíček Bořek, 2017. "Inflation and the steeplechase between economic activity variables: evidence for G7 countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-42, January.
    16. Bill Russell & Dooruj Rambaccussing, 2016. "Breaks and the Statistical Process of Inflation: The Case of the ‘Modern’ Phillips Curve," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 294, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    17. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2016. "The term structure of expectations and bond yields," Staff Reports 775, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Baxa, Jaromír & Plašil, Miroslav & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Changes in inflation dynamics under inflation targeting? Evidence from Central European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 116-130.
    19. Thomas A. Lubik & Paolo Surico, 2010. "The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 177-194, January.
    20. Menelik Geremew, 2017. "How the Wealth and Credit Channels in Monetary Transmission Affect Consumer Durables and Housing: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 43(3), pages 406-425, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation-gap persistence; Great Moderation; monetary policy; New Keynesian model; Taylor rule;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:awi:wpaper:0521. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gabi Rauscher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/awheide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.