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Estimating Trend Inflation Based on Unobserved Components Model: Is It Correlated with the Inflation Gap?

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  • SHIH‐TANG HWU
  • CHANG‐JIN KIM

Abstract

Building on the work of Stock and Watson (2007), this paper empirically shows that a negative correlation between innovations to trend inflation and the inflation gap plays an important role in the dynamics of postwar U.S. inflation. Additional features that we incorporate in our model include regime‐switching inflation gap persistence and association between inflation and inflation uncertainty. The resulting estimate of trend inflation is smooth, and our model provides superior out‐of‐sample forecasts than Stock and Watson's (2007) unobserved components model with stochastic volatility or than Atkeson and Ohanian's (2001) random walk model does.

Suggested Citation

  • Shih‐Tang Hwu & Chang‐Jin Kim, 2019. "Estimating Trend Inflation Based on Unobserved Components Model: Is It Correlated with the Inflation Gap?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(8), pages 2305-2319, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:51:y:2019:i:8:p:2305-2319
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12600
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Shih-Tang Hwu, 2025. "Identification and Estimation in Linear Models with Endogeneity Through Time-Varying Volatility," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, June.
    2. Joshy Easaw & Roberto Golinelli, 2022. "Professionals Inflation Forecasts: The Two Dimensions Of Forecaster Inattentiveness [“Sectoral and aggregate inflation dynamics in the euro area”]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 701-720.
    3. Florian Huber & Daniel Kaufmann, 2020. "Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 87(348), pages 1016-1036, October.
    4. James McNeil & Gregor W. Smith, 2023. "The All‐Gap Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(2), pages 269-282, April.
    5. Kamber, Güneş & Wong, Benjamin, 2020. "Global factors and trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    6. Fu, Bowen & Mendieta-Munoz, Ivan, 2025. "Trend inflation and structural shocks," EconStor Preprints 308793, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Yunjong Eo & Luis Uzeda & Benjamin Wong, 2023. "Understanding trend inflation through the lens of the goods and services sectors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(5), pages 751-766, August.
    8. Murasawa Yasutomo, 2022. "Bayesian multivariate Beveridge–Nelson decomposition of I(1) and I(2) series with cointegration," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 26(3), pages 387-415, June.
    9. Bowen Fu, Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2023. "Structural shocks and trend inflation," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2023_04, University of Utah, Department of Economics.

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