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Assessing the Effects of Monetary Shocks on Macroeconomic Stars: A SMUC-IV Framework

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  • Bowen Fu
  • Chenghan Hou
  • Jan Pruser

Abstract

This paper proposes a structural multivariate unobserved components model with external instrument (SMUC-IV) to investigate the effects of monetary policy shocks on key U.S. macroeconomic "stars"-namely, the level of potential output, the growth rate of potential output, trend inflation, and the neutral interest rate. A key feature of our approach is the use of an external instrument to identify monetary policy shocks within the multivariate unob- served components modeling framework. We develop an MCMC estimation method to facilitate posterior inference within our proposed SMUC-IV frame- work. In addition, we propose an marginal likelihood estimator to enable model comparison across alternative specifications. Our empirical analysis shows that contractionary monetary policy shocks have significant negative effects on the macroeconomic stars, highlighting the nonzero long-run effects of transitory monetary policy shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Bowen Fu & Chenghan Hou & Jan Pruser, 2025. "Assessing the Effects of Monetary Shocks on Macroeconomic Stars: A SMUC-IV Framework," Papers 2510.05802, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2510.05802
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