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A New Model of Trend Inflation

  • Joshua C C Chan

    ()

  • Gary Koop

    ()

  • Simon M Potter

    ()

This paper introduces a new model of trend (or underlying) inflation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation is constrained to lie in an interval. The bounds of this interval can either be fixed or estimated from the data. Our model also allows for a time-varying degree of persistence in the transitory component of inflation. The bounds placed on trend inflation mean that standard econometric methods for estimating linear Gaussian state space models cannot be used and we develop a posterior simulation algorithm for estimating the bounded trend inflation model. In an empirical exercise with CPI inflation we find the model to work well, yielding more sensible measures of trend inflation and forecasting better than popular alternatives such as the unobserved components stochastic volatility model.

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File URL: http://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/pdf/working-papers/2012/082012.pdf
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Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2012-08.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2012-08
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  1. Peter N. Ireland, 2007. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 1851-1882, December.
  2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Joshua Chan & Rodney Strachan, 2012. "Estimation in Non-Linear Non-Gaussian State Space Models with Precision-Based Methods," CAMA Working Papers 2012-13, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  4. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January.
  5. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  6. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2008. "An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  7. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2008. "Trend Inflation, Indexation, and Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2101-26, December.
  8. Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 2011. "Time varying VARs with inequality restrictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1126-1138, July.
  9. John C. Williams, 2009. "The risk of deflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar27.
  10. Todd E.Clark & Taeyoung Doh, 2011. "A Bayesian evaluation of alternative models of trend inflation," Research Working Paper RWP 11-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  11. Joshua Chan & Rodney Strachan, 2012. "Estimation in Non-Linear Non-Gaussian State Space Models with Precision-Based Methods," CAMA Working Papers 2012-13, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  12. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2007. "Estimation and Forecasting in Models with Multiple Breaks," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 763-789.
  13. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
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