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Estimating Hysteresis Effects

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  • Francesco Furlanetto
  • Antoine Lepetit
  • Ørjan Robstad
  • Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez
  • Pål Ulvedal

Abstract

In this paper we identify demand shocks that can have a permanent effect on output through hysteresis effects. We call these shocks permanent demand shocks. They are found to be quantitatively important in the United States, in particular when the Great Recession is included in the sample. Recessions driven by permanent demand shocks lead to a permanent decline in employment and investment, while output per worker is largely unaffected. We find strong evidence that hysteresis transmits through a rise in long-term unemployment and a decline in labor force participation and disproportionately affects the least productive workers.

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  • Francesco Furlanetto & Antoine Lepetit & Ørjan Robstad & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Pål Ulvedal, 2021. "Estimating Hysteresis Effects," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-059, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-59
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2021.059
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    Cited by:

    1. Luca Benati & Thomas A. Lubik, 2021. "Searching for Hysteresis," Working Paper 21-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    2. Francesco Furlanetto & Kåre Hagelund & Frank Hansen & Ørjan Robstad, 2020. "Norges Bank Output Gap Estimates: Forecasting Properties, Reliability and Cyclical Sensitivity," Working Paper 2020/7, Norges Bank.
    3. Herman, Uroš & Lozej, Matija, 2021. "Cross-border bank funding and lending in a monetary union: Evidence from Slovenia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hysteresis; Structural vector autoregressions; Sign restrictions; Long-run restrictions; Employment; Labor productivity; Local projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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