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Estimating Hysteresis Effects

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  • Francesco Furlanetto
  • Antoine Lepetit
  • Ørjan Robstad
  • Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez
  • Pål Ulvedal

Abstract

In this paper, we identify demand shocks that can have a permanent effect on output through hysteresis effects. We call these shocks permanent demand shocks. They are found to be quantitatively important in the United States, in particular when the sample includes the Great Recession. Recessions driven by permanent demand shocks lead to a permanent decline in employment and investment, although output per worker is largely unaffected. We find strong evidence that hysteresis transmits through a rise in long-term unemployment and a decline in labor force participation and disproportionately affects the least productive workers.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Furlanetto & Antoine Lepetit & Ørjan Robstad & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Pål Ulvedal, 2021. "Estimating Hysteresis Effects," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2021-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:93479
    DOI: 10.29338/wp2021-24
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    4. Li, Mengheng & Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan, 2024. "Dynamic hysteresis effects," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    5. Francesco Furlanetto & Kåre Hagelund & Frank Hansen & Ørjan Robstad, 2020. "Norges Bank Output Gap Estimates: Forecasting Properties, Reliability and Cyclical Sensitivity," Working Paper 2020/7, Norges Bank.
    6. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2022. "Lower for longer under endogenous technology growth," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2022, Bank of Finland.
    7. Granados, Camilo & Parra-Amado, Daniel, 2024. "Estimating the output gap after COVID: How to address unprecedented macroeconomic variations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    8. Schmöller, Michaela & McClung, Nigel, 2024. "Price stability and debt sustainability under endogenous trend growth," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2024, Bank of Finland.
    9. Schmöller, Michaela, 2022. "Endogenous technology, scarring and fiscal policy," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2022, Bank of Finland.
    10. Didier Wernli & Lucas Böttcher & Flore Vanackere & Yuliya Kaspiarovich & Maria Masood & Nicolas Levrat, 2023. "Understanding and governing global systemic crises in the 21st century: A complexity perspective," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 14(2), pages 207-228, May.
    11. Raza, Hamid & Laurentjoye, Thibault & Byrialsen, Mikael Randrup & Valdecantos, Sebastian, 2023. "Inflation and the role of macroeconomic policies: A model for the case of Denmark," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 32-43.
    12. Chavarín, Ricardo & Gómez, Ricardo & Salgado, Alfredo, 2023. "Sectoral supply and demand shocks during COVID-19: Evidence from Mexico," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
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    14. Foroni, Claudia & Furlanetto, Francesco, 2022. "Explaining Deviations from Okun's Law," CEPR Discussion Papers 17369, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Fatás, Antonio & Singh, Sanjay R., 2024. "Supply or demand? Policy makers’ confusion in the presence of hysteresis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    16. Nicolo Maffei-Faccioli, 2020. "Identifying the Sources of the Slowdown in Growth: Demand vs. Supply," 2020 Papers pma2978, Job Market Papers.
    17. Herman, Uroš & Lozej, Matija, 2021. "Cross-border bank funding and lending in a monetary union: Evidence from Slovenia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    18. Francesco Furlanetto & Kåre Hagelund & Frank Hansen & Ørjan Robstad, 2023. "Norges Bank Output Gap Estimates: Forecasting Properties, Reliability, Cyclical Sensitivity and Hysteresis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 238-267, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    hysteresis; structural vector autoregressions; sign restrictions; long-run restrictions; employment; labor productivity; local projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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