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Okun Revisited: Who Benefits Most from a Strong Economy?

Author

Listed:
  • Stephanie R. Aaronson

    (Brookings Institution)

  • Mary C. Daly

    (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

  • William L. Wascher

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • David W. Wilcox

    (Federal Reserve Board (Retired))

Abstract

Previous research has shown that the labor market experiences of less advantaged groups are more cyclically sensitive than the labor market experiences of more advantaged groups; in other words, less advantaged groups experience a high-beta version of the aggregate fluctuations in the labor market. For example, when the unemployment rate of whites increases by 1 percentage point, the unemployment rates of African Americans and Hispanics rise by well more than 1 percentage point, on average. This behavior is observed across other labor market indicators, and is roughly reversed when the unemployment rate declines. We update this work to include the post- Great Recession period and extend the analysis to consider whether these high-beta relationships change when the labor market is especially tight. We find suggestive evidence that when the labor market is already strong, a further increment of strengthening provides a modest extra benefit to some disadvantaged groups, relative to earlier in the labor market cycle. In addition, we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that these gains are somewhat persistent for African Americans and women.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephanie R. Aaronson & Mary C. Daly & William L. Wascher & David W. Wilcox, 2019. "Okun Revisited: Who Benefits Most from a Strong Economy?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 333-404.
    • Handle: RePEc:bin:bpeajo:v:50:y:2019:i:2019-01:p:333-404
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    Cited by:

    1. Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2021. "Maximum Employment and the Participation Cycle," NBER Working Papers 29222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Mattias Vermeiren, 2025. "Defining Price Stability: Public Accountability of the European Central Bank’s Goal Independence," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 13.
    3. Francesco Furlanetto & Antoine Lepetit & Ørjan Robstad & Juan Rubio-Ramírez & Pål Ulvedal, 2025. "Estimating Hysteresis Effects," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-70, January.
    4. repec:ecb:ecbdps:202218 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Leila Bengali & Marcus Sander & Robert G. Valletta & Cindy Zhao, 2023. "Falling College Wage Premiums by Race and Ethnicity," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(22), pages 1-6, August.
    6. repec:ecb:ecbdps:202221 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Katheryn N. Russ & Jay C. Shambaugh & Sanjay R. Singh, 2024. "Currency Areas, Labor Markets, and Regional Cyclical Sensitivity," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 152-195, March.
    8. Dossche, Maarten & Kolndrekaj, Aleksandra & Propst, Maximilian & Ramos Perez, Javier & Slacalek, Jiri & Vegh, Marton, 2024. "Immigration and the distribution of income, consumption and wealth in the euro area: Implications for economic policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 867-886.
    9. Felipe Alves & Giovanni L. Violante, 2024. "From Micro to Macro Hysteresis: Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 24-39, Bank of Canada.
    10. Fan Hu & Zidong An, 2024. "The Buffering Effect of Higher Education Expansion on the Okun’s Law in China," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 250(3), pages 89-107, September.
    11. Bennani, Hamza, 2023. "Effect of monetary policy shocks on the racial unemployment rates in the US," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(1).
    12. Mindaugas Butkus & Laura Dargenyte-Kacileviciene & Kristina Matuzeviciute & Dovile Rupliene & Janina Seputiene, 2023. "The role of labor market regulations on the sensitivity of unemployment to economic growth," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(3), pages 373-427, December.
    13. Dossche, Maarten & Kolndrekaj, Aleksandra & Propst, Maximilian & Ramos Perez, Javier & Slacalek, Jiri, 2022. "Immigrants and the distribution of income and wealth in the euro area: first facts and implications for monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2719, European Central Bank.
    14. Erica L. Groshen & Harry J. Holzer, 2021. "Labor Market Trends and Outcomes: What Has Changed since the Great Recession?," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 695(1), pages 49-69, May.
    15. Janice C. Eberly & James H. Stock & Jonathan H. Wright, 2020. "The Federal Reserve's Current Framework for Monetary Policy: A Review and Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(1), pages 5-71, February.
    16. Basu, Susanto, 2024. "Discussion of “Understanding the international rise and fall of inflation since 2020”," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(S).

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