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Causes and Consequences of Hysteresis: Aggregate Demand, Productivity and Employment

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  • Giovanni Dosi
  • Marcelo C. Pereira
  • Andrea Roventini
  • Maria Enrica Virgillito

Abstract

In this work we develop an agent-based model where hysteresis in major macroeconomic variables (e.g. GDP, productivity, unemployment) emerges out of the decentralized interactions of heterogeneous firms and workers. Building upon the model in Dosi et al. (2016, 2017), we specify an endogenous process of accumulation of workers' skills and a state-dependent process of entry, studying their hysteretic impacts. Indeed, hysteresis is ubiquitous. However, this is not due to market imperfections, but rather to the very functioning of decentralised economies characterised by coordination externalities and dynamic increasing returns. So, contrary to the insider-outsider hypothesis (Blanchard and Summers, 1986), the model does not support the findings that rigid industrial relations may foster hysteretic behaviour in aggregate unemployment. On the contrary, in line with the recent discussion in Ball et al. (2014), this contribution provides evidence that during severe downturns, and thus declining aggregate demand, phenomena like lower investment and innovation rates, skills deterioration, and declining entry dynamics are better candidates to explain long-run unemployment spells and lower output growth. In that, more rigid labour markets dampen hysteretic dynamics by supporting aggregate demand, thus making the economy more resilient.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo C. Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2017. "Causes and Consequences of Hysteresis: Aggregate Demand, Productivity and Employment," LEM Papers Series 2017/07, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2017/07
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Lamperti & Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Sandro Sapio, 2017. "Faraway, so close : coupled climate and economic dynamics in an agent-based integrated assessment model," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/4hs7liq1f49, Sciences Po.
    2. Francesco Lamperti & Andrea Roventini & Amir Sani, 2017. "Agent-Based Model Calibration using Machine Learning Surrogates," Sciences Po publications 2017-09, Sciences Po.
    3. Dosi, Giovanni & Pereira, Marcelo C. & Roventini, Andrea & Virgillito, Maria Enrica, 2018. "What if supply-side policies are not enough? The perverse interaction of flexibility and austerity," GLO Discussion Paper Series 168, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emmanuele Russo, 2018. "Endogenous growth and global divergence in a multi-country agent - based model," Sciences Po publications 2018-02, Sciences Po.
    5. repec:spr:italej:v:3:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s40797-017-0065-z is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mattia Guerini & Francesco Lamperti & Alessio Moneta & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Validation of Agent-Based Models in Economics and Finance," LEM Papers Series 2017/23, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Agent-Based Macroeconomics and Classical Political Economy: Some Italian Roots," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 3(3), pages 261-283, November.
    8. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emanuele Russo, 2017. "Endogenous growth and global divergence in a multi-country agent-based model," LEM Papers Series 2017/32, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hysteresis; Aggregate Demand; Multiple Equilibria; Skills Deterioration; Market Entry; Agent-Based Model;

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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