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A Test for Strong Hysteresis

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  • Piscitelli, Laura
  • Cross, Rod
  • Grinfeld, Michael
  • Lamba, Harbir

Abstract

The mathematical definition of systems with hysteresis, that is nonlinear input-output systems with memory, is different from the definition usually applied to economic systems. Economic theory and modelling practice have almost always specified simple dynamic systems with regular leads and lags in their responses, corresponding to input-output systems with unit or zero (or at least stable) roots. These models cannot capture the "selective memory" feature of hysteretic behaviour, that is, the influence only of certain past events (typically, non-dominated sequences of previous peaks and troughs). There is therefore a difficulty in testing for and validating economic models containing hysteretic behaviour; appropriate empirical tests have not been developed. In particular, the usual unit vs. zero (or stable) root tests used in econometric analysis are unable to detect hysteretic behaviour or to distinguish it from more conventional economic behaviour. The purpose of this paper is to propose a new way of testing for hysteresis, by drawing on some ideas in the mathematical/control theory literature and adapting them to fit into the economic frameworks with elements of hysteresis. Citation Copyright 2000 by Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Suggested Citation

  • Piscitelli, Laura & Cross, Rod & Grinfeld, Michael & Lamba, Harbir, 2000. "A Test for Strong Hysteresis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 15(1-2), pages 59-78, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:15:y:2000:i:1-2:p:59-78
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    1. Raurich, Xavier & Sala, Hector & Sorolla, Valeri, 2006. "Unemployment, Growth, And Fiscal Policy: New Insights On The Hysteresis Hypothesis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(03), pages 285-316, June.
    2. Matthias Göcke & Laura Werner, 2015. "Play Hysteresis in Supply or in Demand as Part of a Market Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 339-374, May.
    3. Bassi, Federico & Lang, Dany, 2016. "Investment hysteresis and potential output: A post-Keynesian–Kaleckian agent-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 35-49.
    4. Richards, Timothy J. & Patterson, Paul M., 2004. "Causes of retail price fixity: an empirical analysis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 117-136.
    5. Ricardo Denadai & Vladimir K. Teles, 2016. "A Test for Hysteresis in International Trade," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 583-598, May.
    6. Göcke, Matthias, 2012. "Play-hysteresis in supply as part of a market model," Discussion Papers 61, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU).
    7. Dosi, Giovanni & Pereira, Marcelo C. & Roventini, Andrea & Virgillito, Maria Enrica, 2017. "Causes and Consequences of Hysteresis: Aggregate Demand, Productivity and Employment," GLO Discussion Paper Series 64, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    8. Grinfeld, M. & Piscitelli, L. & Cross, R., 2000. "A probabilistic framework for hysteresis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 287(3), pages 577-586.
    9. Asensio, Angel & Charles, Sébastien & Lang, Dany & Le Heron, Edwin, 2011. "Les développements récents de la macroéconomie post-keynésienne," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 10.
    10. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Laura Werner, 2014. "Hysteresis Effects in Economics – Different Methods for Describing Economic Path-dependence," Ruhr Economic Papers 0468, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    11. Matthias Göcke & Jolita Matulaityte, 2015. "Modelling economic hysteresis losses caused by sunk adjustment costs," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201536, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    12. Leigh Tesfatsion, 1999. "Market Power Effects on Worker-Employer Network Formation in Evolutionary Labor Markets with Adaptive Search," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 543, Society for Computational Economics.
    13. Belke, Ansgar & Göcke, Matthias & Werner, Laura, 2014. "Hysteresis Effects in Economics – Different Methods for Describing Economic Path-dependence," Ruhr Economic Papers 468, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    14. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke, 2005. "Real Options Effects on Employment: Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty Matter for Aggregation?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 185-203, May.
    15. Hughes Hallett, A. J. & Piscitelli, Laura, 2002. "Testing for hysteresis against nonlinear alternatives," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 303-327, December.
    16. Matthias Göcke, 2018. "Economic Hysteresis with Multiple Inputs– a Simplified Treatment," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201801, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    17. Leigh Tesfatsion, 2000. "Hysteresis in an Evolutionary Labor Market with Adaptive Search," Computational Economics 0004003, EconWPA.
    18. Yu-Fu Chen & Gylfi Zoega, 2010. "Strong Hysteresis due to Age Effects," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 230, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    19. Sérgio Kannebley Júnior & João Paulo Martins Baroni & Diogo de Prince, 2015. "Macro-Hysteresis Test for Brazilian Exports of Manufactured Products: A threshold Panel Approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 606-637, November.
    20. repec:zbw:rwirep:0468 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Albers, Scott, 2013. "Okun’s Law as a Pi-to-1 ratio: A harmonic / trigonometric theory as to why Okun’s Law works," MPRA Paper 46633, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. bruno amable & jerome henry & frederic lordon & richard topol, 2005. "Complex Remanence vs. Simple Persistence: Are Hysteresis and Unit-Root Processes observationally equivalent?," Computational Economics 0501001, EconWPA.
    23. I. Agur, 2003. "Trade-volume hysteresis: an investigation using aggregate data," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 740, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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