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Agent-Based Model Calibration using Machine Learning Surrogates

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Lamperti

    (Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM) - SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna = Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies [Pisa])

  • Andrea Roventini

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM) - SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna = Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies [Pisa])

  • Amir Sani

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Taking agent-based models (ABM) closer to the data is an open challenge. This paper explicitly tackles parameter space exploration and calibration of ABMs combining supervised machine-learning and intelligent sampling to build a surrogate meta-model. The proposed approach provides a fast and accurate approximation of model behaviour, dramatically reducing computation time. In that, our machine-learning surrogate facilitates large scale explorations of the parameter-space, while providing a powerful filter to gain insights into the complex functioning of agent-based models. The algorithm introduced in this paper merges model simulation and output analysis into a surrogate meta-model, which substantially ease ABM calibration. We successfully apply our approach to the Brock and Hommes (1998) asset pricing model and to the " Island " endogenous growth model (Fagiolo and Dosi, 2003). Performance is evaluated against a relatively large out-of-sample set of parameter combinations, while employing different user-defined statistical tests for output analysis. The results demonstrate the capacity of machine learning surrogates to facilitate fast and precise exploration of agent-based models' behaviour over their often rugged parameter spaces.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Lamperti & Andrea Roventini & Amir Sani, 2017. "Agent-Based Model Calibration using Machine Learning Surrogates," Working Papers hal-01499344, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01499344
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    surrogate; calibration; machine learning; agent based model; meta-model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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