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When more Flexibility Yields more Fragility: the Microfoundations of Keynesian Aggregate Unemployment

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  • Giovanni Dosi
  • Marcelo C. Pereira
  • Andrea Roventini
  • Maria Enrica Virgillito

Abstract

Wages are an element of cost crucially aecting the competitiveness of individual firms. But the wage bill is also a crucial element of aggregate demand. Hence it could be that more "flexible" and fluid labour markets, while allowing for faster inter-firm reallocation of labour, may also render the whole economic system more fragile, more prone to recession, more volatile. In this work we investigate some conditions under which such a conjecture applies. The paper presents an agent- based model that investigates the effects of two "archetypes of capitalism", in terms of regimes of labour governance - defined by the mechanisms of wage determination, firing, labour protection and productivity gains sharing - upon (i) labour market regularities and (ii) macroeconomic dynamics (long-term rates of growth, GDP uctuations, unemployment rates, inequality, etc..). The model is built upon the "Keynes meets Schumpeter" family of models (Dosi et al., 2010), explicitly incorporating different microfounded labour market regimes. Our results show that seemingly more rigid labour markets and labour relations are conducive to coordination successes with higher and smoother growth.

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  • Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo C. Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2016. "When more Flexibility Yields more Fragility: the Microfoundations of Keynesian Aggregate Unemployment," LEM Papers Series 2016/06, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2016/06
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    Cited by:

    1. Elisa Palagi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Jean-Luc Gaffard, 2017. "Inequality, Redistributive Policies and Multiplier Dynamics in an Agent-based Model with Credit Rationing," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 3(3), pages 367-387, November.
    2. Chen, Siyan & Desiderio, Saul, 2018. "What moves the Beveridge curve and the Phillips curve: An agent-based analysis," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 12, pages 1-30.
    3. Dawid, H. & Harting, P. & Neugart, M., 2018. "Cohesion policy and inequality dynamics: Insights from a heterogeneous agents macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 220-255.
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    5. Jesus Ferreiro & Carmen Gómez, 2018. "Employment protection and labour market performance in European Union countries during the Great Recession," FMM Working Paper 31-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    6. Lamperti, Francesco & Roventini, Andrea & Sani, Amir, 2018. "Agent-based model calibration using machine learning surrogates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 366-389.
    7. Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo C. Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2018. "What if supply-side policies are not enough ? The perverse interaction of flexibility and austerity," Sciences Po publications 2018-04, Sciences Po.
    8. Giorgos Galanis & Roberto Veneziani & Naoki Yoshihara, 2018. "The dynamics of exploitation and inequality in economies with heterogeneous agents," Working Papers SDES-2018-10, Kochi University of Technology, School of Economics and Management, revised Oct 2018.
    9. Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo C. Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2016. "The Effects of Labour Market Reforms upon Unemployment and Income Inequalities: an Agent Based Model," LEM Papers Series 2016/27, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    10. Dosi, Giovanni & Pereira, Marcelo C. & Roventini, Andrea & Virgillito, Maria Enrica, 2017. "Causes and Consequences of Hysteresis: Aggregate Demand, Productivity and Employment," GLO Discussion Paper Series 64, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    11. Guerini, Mattia & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2018. "No man is an Island: The impact of heterogeneity and local interactions on macroeconomic dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 82-95.
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    13. Mauro Napoletano, 2017. "A Short Walk on the Wild Side: Agent-Based Models and their Implications for Macroeconomic Analysis," GREDEG Working Papers 2017-40, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis.
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    24. Lucrezia Fanti, 2018. "An AB-SFC Model of Induced Technical Change along Classical and Keynesian Lines," Working Papers 3/18, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    25. Fanti, Lucrezia, 2018. "An AB-SFC Model of Induced Technical Change along Classical and Keynesian Lines," MPRA Paper 86645, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Involuntary Unemployment; Aggregate Demand; Wage Determination; Labour Market Regimes; Keynesian Coordination Failures; Agent-Based Models;

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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