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Causes et consequences of hysteresis : aggregate demand, productivity and employment

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanni Dosi

    (Laboratory of Economics and Management)

  • Marcelo C. Pereira

    (Universidade Estadual de Campinas)

  • Andrea Roventini

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Maria Enrica Virgillito

    (Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna)

Abstract

In this work we develop an agent-based model where hysteresis in major macroeconomic variables (e.g., gross domestic product, productivity, unemployment) emerges out of the decentralized interactions of heterogeneous firms and workers. Building upon the “Schumpeter meeting Keynes” family of models (cf. in particular Dosi et al. (2016b, 2017c)), we specify an endogenous process of accumulation of workers’ skills and a state-dependent process of firms entry. Indeed, hysteresis is ubiquitous. However, this is not due to market imperfections, but rather to the very functioning of decentralized economies characterized by coordination externalities and dynamic increasing returns. So, contrary to the insider–outsider hypothesis (Blanchard and Summers, 1986), the model does not support the findings that rigid industrial relations may foster hysteretic behavior in aggregate unemployment. On the contrary, this contribution provides evidence that during severe downturns, and thus declining aggregate demand, phenomena like decreasing investment and innovation rates, skills deterioration, and declining entry dynamics are better candidates to explain long-run unemployment spells and reduced output growth. In that, more rigid labor markets may well dampen hysteretic dynamics by sustaining aggregate demand, thus making the economy more resilient.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo C. Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2018. "Causes et consequences of hysteresis : aggregate demand, productivity and employment," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/4h9cnu4n2k8, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4h9cnu4n2k8tfri093jil1d739
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Haibo Zhou & Ronald Dekker & Alfred Kleinknecht, 2011. "Flexible labor and innovation performance: evidence from longitudinal firm-level data," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 941-968, June.
    2. Pascal Seppecher & Isabelle L Salle & Marc Lavoie, 2018. "What drives markups? Evolutionary pricing in an agent-based stock-flow consistent macroeconomic model," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(6), pages 1045-1067.
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    4. Dosi, G. & Pereira, M.C. & Roventini, A. & Virgillito, M.E., 2017. "When more flexibility yields more fragility: The microfoundations of Keynesian aggregate unemployment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 162-186.
    5. repec:spr:jeicoo:v:13:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11403-017-0193-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo C. Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2016. "The Effects of Labour Market Reforms upon Unemployment and Income Inequalities: an Agent Based Model," Sciences Po publications 2016-24, Sciences Po.
    7. Todd Messer & Michael Siemer & Francois Gourio, 2016. "A Missing Generation of Firms? Aggregate Effects of the Decline in New Business Formation," 2016 Meeting Papers 752, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dosi, G. & Pereira, M.C. & Roventini, A. & Virgillito, M.E., 2019. "What if supply-side policies are not enough? The perverse interaction of flexibility and austerity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 360-388.
    2. Dosi, Giovanni & Roventini, Andrea & Russo, Emanuele, 2019. "Endogenous growth and global divergence in a multi-country agent-based model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 101-129.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computational techniques; Employment; Institutions;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy

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