IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp10223.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Consequences of Long Term Unemployment: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee Data

Author

Listed:
  • Abraham, Katharine G.

    (University of Maryland)

  • Haltiwanger, John C.

    (University of Maryland)

  • Sandusky, L. Kristin

    (U.S. Census Bureau)

  • Spletzer, James R.

    (Independent Researcher)

Abstract

It is well known that the long-term unemployed fare worse in the labor market than the short-term unemployed, but less clear why this is so. One potential explanation is that the long-term unemployed are "bad apples" who had poorer prospects from the outset of their spells (heterogeneity). Another is that their bad outcomes are a consequence of the extended unemployment they have experienced (state dependence). We use Current Population Survey (CPS) data on unemployed individuals linked to wage records for the same people to distinguish between these competing explanations. For each person in our sample, we have wage record data that cover the period from 20 quarters before to 11 quarters after the quarter in which the person is observed in the CPS. This gives us rich information about prior and subsequent work histories not available to previous researchers that we use to control for individual heterogeneity that might be affecting subsequent labor market outcomes. Even with these controls in place, we find that unemployment duration has a strongly negative effect on the likelihood of subsequent employment. This finding is inconsistent with the heterogeneity ("bad apple") explanation for why the long-term unemployed fare worse than the short-term unemployed. We also find that longer unemployment durations are associated with lower subsequent earnings, though this is mainly attributable to the long-term unemployed having a lower likelihood of subsequent employment rather than to their having lower earnings once a job is found.

Suggested Citation

  • Abraham, Katharine G. & Haltiwanger, John C. & Sandusky, L. Kristin & Spletzer, James R., 2016. "The Consequences of Long Term Unemployment: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee Data," IZA Discussion Papers 10223, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10223
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp10223.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:pri:cepsud:215krueger is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    3. Farber, Henry S & Silverman, Dan & Wachter, Till von, 2015. "Factors Determining Callbacks to Job Applications by the Unemployed: An Audit Study," IZA Discussion Papers 9465, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Kory Kroft & Fabian Lange & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2013. "Duration Dependence and Labor Market Conditions: Evidence from a Field Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 128(3), pages 1123-1167.
    5. Machin, Stephen & Manning, Alan, 1999. "The causes and consequences of longterm unemployment in Europe," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 47, pages 3085-3139, Elsevier.
    6. Kory Kroft & Fabian Lange & Matthew J. Notowidigdo & Lawrence F. Katz, 2016. "Long-Term Unemployment and the Great Recession: The Role of Composition, Duration Dependence, and Nonparticipation," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 7-54.
    7. Henry S. Farber, 1997. "The Changing Face of Job Loss in the United States, 1981-1995," Working Papers 761, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    8. Alan B. Krueger & Judd Cramer & David Cho, 2014. "Are the Long-Term Unemployed on the Margins of the Labor Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(1 (Spring), pages 229-299.
    9. Acemoglu, Daron, 1995. "Public Policy in a Model of Long-Term Unemployment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 62(246), pages 161-178, May.
    10. Stefan Eriksson & Dan-Olof Rooth, 2014. "Do Employers Use Unemployment as a Sorting Criterion When Hiring? Evidence from a Field Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 1014-1039, March.
    11. Acemoglu, Daron & Shimer, Robert, 2000. "Productivity gains from unemployment insurance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1195-1224, June.
    12. Alan B. Krueger & Judd Cramer & David Cho, 2014. "Are the Long-Term Unemployed on the Margins of the Labor Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 229-299.
    13. Henry S. Farber, 2015. "Job Loss in the Great Recession and its Aftermath: U.S. Evidence from the Displaced Workers Survey," NBER Working Papers 21216, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. R. Jason Faberman & Marianna Kudlyak, 2019. "The Intensity of Job Search and Search Duration," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 327-357, July.
    15. Alan B. Krueger & Andreas Mueller, 2011. "Job Search and Job Finding in a Period of Mass Unemployment: Evidence from High-Frequency Longitudinal Data," Working Papers 1295, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    16. Henry S. Farber, 2015. "Job Loss in the Great Recession and its Aftermath: U.S. Evidence from the Displaced Workers Survey," Working Papers 589, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    17. Steven J. Davis & Till Von Wachter, 2011. "Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 1-72.
    18. Ehrenberg, Ronald G & Oaxaca, Ronald L, 1976. "Unemployment Insurance, Duration of Unemployment, and Subsequent Wage Gain," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(5), pages 754-766, December.
    19. John M. Abowd & Bryce E. Stephens & Lars Vilhuber & Fredrik Andersson & Kevin L. McKinney & Marc Roemer & Simon Woodcock, 2009. "The LEHD Infrastructure Files and the Creation of the Quarterly Workforce Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: Producer Dynamics: New Evidence from Micro Data, pages 149-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. James W. Albrecht & Per-Anders Edin & Marianne Sundström & Susan B. Vroman, 1999. "Career Interruptions and Subsequent Earnings: A Reexamination Using Swedish Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(2), pages 294-311.
    21. Henry S. Farber, 2005. "What do we know about Job Loss in the United States? Evidence from the Displaced Workers Survey, 1984-2004," Working Papers 877, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    22. Alan B. Krueger & Andreas Mueller, 2011. "Job Search, Emotional Well-Being and Job Finding in a Period of Mass Unemployment: Evidence from High-Frequency Longitudinal Data," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 1-81.
    23. Johannes F. Schmieder & Till von Wachter & Stefan Bender, 2013. "The Causal Effect of Unemployment Duration on Wages: Evidence from Unemployment Insurance Extensions," NBER Working Papers 19772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Henry S. Farber, 1993. "The Incidence and Costs of Job Loss: 1982-1991," Working Papers 688, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    25. Henry S. Farber, 2005. "What do we know about Job Loss in the United States? Evidence from the Displaced Workers Survey, 1984-2004," Working Papers 877, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    26. repec:pri:indrel:dsp014j03cz656 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Henry S. Farber, 1997. "The Changing Face of Job Loss in the United States, 1981-1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1997 Micr), pages 55-142.
    28. Krueger, Alan B. & Mueller, Andreas I., 2011. "Job Search and Job Finding in a Period of Mass Unemployment: Evidence from High-Frequency Longitudinal Data," IZA Discussion Papers 5450, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    29. Henry S. Farber, 1993. "The Incidence and Costs of Job Loss: 1982-1991," Working Papers 688, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    30. Henry S. Farber, 1997. "The Changing Face of Job Loss in the United States, 1981-1995," Working Papers 761, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    31. Dennis Görlich & Andries de Grip, 2009. "Human capital depreciation during hometime," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(suppl_1), pages 98-121, April.
    32. Farber, Henry S, 2015. "Job Loss in the Great Recession and its Aftermath: U.S. Evidence from the Displaced Workers Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 9069, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    33. Jacob Mincer & Haim Ofek, 1982. "Interrupted Work Careers: Depreciation and Restoration of Human Capital," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 17(1), pages 3-24.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lídia Farré & Francesco Fasani & Hannes Mueller, 2018. "Feeling useless: the effect of unemployment on mental health in the Great Recession," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 7(1), pages 1-34, December.
    2. Daniele Girardi & Walter Paternesi Meloni & Antonella Stirati, 2018. "Persistent Effects of Autonomous Demand Expansions," Working Papers Series 70, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    3. Samuel Bentolila & J. Ignacio García-Pérez & Marcel Jansen, 2017. "Are the Spanish long-term unemployed unemployable?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-41, March.
    4. Paulo R. Mota & Paulo B. Vasconcelos, 2018. "Does the Deregulation of the Labour Market Reduce Employment Hysteresis? An Analysis in a Low Interest Rate Environment," FEP Working Papers 611, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    5. Nüß, Patrick, 2017. "Duration Dependence as an Unemployment Stigma: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Germany," GLO Discussion Paper Series 88, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    6. Rujiwattanapong, W. Similan, 2019. "Unemployment dynamics and endogenous unemployment insurance extensions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100948, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. B. Contini & J. Ignacio Garcia Perez & T. Pusch & R. Quaranta, 2017. "New Approaches to the Study of Long Term Non-Employment Duration in Italy, Germany and Spain," Working Papers 2017-14, FEDEA.
    8. Contini, Bruno & Quaranta, Roberto, 2017. "Explaining Non-Employment Magnitude and Duration: The Case of Italy," IZA Discussion Papers 10728, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Olivier Blanchard, 2018. "Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 97-120, Winter.
    10. Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2018. "Causes et consequences of hysteresis : aggregate demand, productivity and employment," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/hiaqa97n684, Sciences Po.
    11. G Dosi & M C Pereira & A Roventini & M E Virgillito, 2018. "Causes and consequences of hysteresis: aggregate demand, productivity, and employment," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(6), pages 1015-1044.
    12. Samuel Bentolila & J. Ignacio García-Pérez & Marcel Jansen, 2017. "Are the Spanish Long-Term Unemployed Unemployable?," Working Papers wp2018_1707, CEMFI.
    13. Olivier J. Blanchard, 2017. "Should we Get rid of the Natural Rate Hypothesis?," NBER Working Papers 24057, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Paternesi Meloni, Walter & Romaniello, Davide & Stirati, Antonella, 2022. "Inflation and the NAIRU: assessing the role of long-term unemployment as a cause of hysteresis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    15. Anger, Silke & Camehl, Georg & Peter, Frauke, 2017. "Involuntary job loss and changes in personality traits," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 71-91.
    16. Similan Rujiwattanapong, 2019. "Unemployment Dynamics and Unemployment Insurance Extensions under Rational Expectations," 2019 Meeting Papers 232, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo C. Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2018. "Causes et consequences of hysteresis : aggregate demand, productivity and employment," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/4h9cnu4n2k8, Sciences Po.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Katharine G. Abraham & John Haltiwanger & Kristin Sandusky & James R. Spletzer, 2019. "The Consequences of Long-Term Unemployment: Evidence from Linked Survey and Administrative Data," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 72(2), pages 266-299, March.
    2. Schmidpeter, Bernhard & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2021. "Automation, unemployment, and the role of labor market training," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Hall, R.E., 2016. "Macroeconomics of Persistent Slumps," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2131-2181, Elsevier.
    4. Henry S. Farber, 2016. "Employment, Hours and Earnings Consequences of Job Loss: U.S. Evidence from the Displaced Workers Survey," Working Papers 589a, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    5. Arash Nekoei & Andrea Weber, 2017. "Does Extending Unemployment Benefits Improve Job Quality?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(2), pages 527-561, February.
    6. Hie Joo Ahn, 2016. "The Role of Observed and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Duration of Unemployment Spells," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-063r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 25 Mar 2022.
    7. Johannes F. Schmieder & Till von Wachter & Stefan Bender, 2013. "The Causal Effect of Unemployment Duration on Wages: Evidence from Unemployment Insurance Extensions," NBER Working Papers 19772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Krebs, Tom & Scheffel, Martin, 2019. "Optimal Social Insurance and Rising Labor Market Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 12128, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. William D. Craighead, 2019. "Hysteresis In A New Keynesian Model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1082-1097, April.
    10. Hellerstein, Judith K. & Kutzbach, Mark J. & Neumark, David, 2019. "Labor market networks and recovery from mass layoffs: Evidence from the Great Recession period," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    11. Ayhan Görmüş, 2019. "Long-Term Youth Unemployment: Evidence from Turkish Household Labour Force Survey," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 62(3), pages 341-359, September.
    12. Carl Singleton, 2018. "Long‐Term Unemployment and the Great Recession: Evidence from UK Stocks and Flows," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(2), pages 105-126, May.
    13. Michael W. L. Elsby & Ryan Michaels & David Ratner, 2015. "The Beveridge Curve: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 571-630, September.
    14. J. Meekes & W.H.J. Hassink, 2016. "The role of the housing market in workers’ resilience to job displacement after firm bankruptcy," Working Papers 16-10, Utrecht School of Economics.
    15. Seim, David, 2019. "On the incidence and effects of job displacement: Evidence from Sweden," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 131-145.
    16. Karthikeya Naraparaju, 2017. "Unemployment Spells in India: Patterns, Trends, and Covariates," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 60(4), pages 625-646, December.
    17. Andreas I. Mueller & Johannes Spinnewijn & Giorgio Topa, 2021. "Job Seekers' Perceptions and Employment Prospects: Heterogeneity, Duration Dependence, and Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(1), pages 324-363, January.
    18. Ioannis Kospentaris, 2021. "Unobserved Heterogeneity and Skill Loss in a Structural Model of Duration Dependence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 280-303, January.
    19. Farber, Henry S, 2015. "Job Loss in the Great Recession and its Aftermath: U.S. Evidence from the Displaced Workers Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 9069, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2016. "A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 5-18.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment duration; heterogeneity; state dependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10223. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.