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The Role of Observed and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Duration of Unemployment Spells

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Abstract

This paper studies the degree to which observable and unobservable worker characteristics account for the variation in the aggregate duration of unemployment. I model the distribution of unobserved worker heterogeneity as time varying to capture the interaction of latent attributes with changes in labor-market conditions. Unobserved heterogeneity is the main explanation for the duration dependence of unemployment hazards. Both cyclical and low-frequency variations in the mean duration of unemployment are mainly driven by one subgroup: workers who, for unobserved reasons, stay unemployed for a long time. In contrast, changes in the composition of observable characteristics of workers have negligible effects.

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  • Hie Joo Ahn, 2016. "The Role of Observed and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Duration of Unemployment Spells," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-063r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 25 Mar 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2016-63
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2016.063r1
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    4. Gorry, Aspen & Munro, David & vom Lehn, Christian, 2020. "Experience, skill composition, and the persistence of unemployment fluctuations," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment duration; disaggregate unemployment; unobserved heterogeneity; genuine duration dependence; nonlinear state space model; extended Kalman filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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