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Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in US Unemployment

Author

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  • Abbring, Jaap H
  • van den Berg, Gerard J
  • van Ours, Jan C

Abstract

In the past decades several features of US unemployment dynamics have been investigated empirically. The original focus of research was on the duration of unemployment. In later studies the cyclicality of incidence and duration, compositional effects and duration dependence of the exit rate out of unemployment have been investigated. Unlike the partial approach of previous studies this paper takes all elements of unemployment dynamics simultaneously into account. We find that cyclical fluctuations in unemployment are driven by variations in the incidence, individual exit probabilities and the composition of the inflow into unemployment. We also find negative duration dependence of the unemployment exit rate, which can be attributed to employers ranking workers according to the length of their unemployment spell.

Suggested Citation

  • Abbring, Jaap H & van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1997. "Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in US Unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 1702, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1702
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    Keywords

    Business Cycle; Sorting Ranking; Unemployment Composition; Unemployment Duration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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