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Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in US Unemployment

Author

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  • Abbring, Jaap H
  • van den Berg, Gerard J
  • van Ours, Jan C

Abstract

In the past decades several features of US unemployment dynamics have been investigated empirically. The original focus of research was on the duration of unemployment. In later studies the cyclicality of incidence and duration, compositional effects and duration dependence of the exit rate out of unemployment have been investigated. Unlike the partial approach of previous studies this paper takes all elements of unemployment dynamics simultaneously into account. We find that cyclical fluctuations in unemployment are driven by variations in the incidence, individual exit probabilities and the composition of the inflow into unemployment. We also find negative duration dependence of the unemployment exit rate, which can be attributed to employers ranking workers according to the length of their unemployment spell.

Suggested Citation

  • Abbring, Jaap H & van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1997. "Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in US Unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 1702, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1702
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    Cited by:

    1. Muriel Dejemeppe & Yves Saks, 2002. "A New Light into Regional Unemployment Disparities in Belgium : Longitudinal Analysis of Grouped Duration Data," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2002019, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    2. Abbring, Jaap H. & van den Berg, Gerard J. & van Ours, Jan C., 2002. "The anatomy of unemployment dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1785-1824, December.
    3. Michal Franta, 2008. "Time Aggregation Bias in Discrete Time Models of Aggregate Duration Data," Working Papers 2008/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    4. Cockx, Bart & Dejemeppe, Muriel, 2002. "Do the Higher Educated Unemployed Crowd Out the Lower Educated Ones in a Competition for Jobs?," IZA Discussion Papers 541, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Muriel Dejemeppe & Bart Cockx, 2005. "Duration dependence in the exit rate out of unemployment in Belgium. Is it true or spurious?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 1-23.
    6. John M. Nunley & Adam Pugh & Nicholas Romero & Richard Alan Seals, Jr., 2014. "Unemployment, Underemployment, and Employment Opportunities: Results from a Correspondence Audit of the Labor Market for College Graduates," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2014-04, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    7. Burgess, Simon & Turon, Hélène, 2000. "Unemployment Dynamics, Duration and Equilibrium: Evidence from Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 2490, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Konstantinos Tatsiramos & Jan C. Ours, 2014. "Labor Market Effects Of Unemployment Insurance Design," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 284-311, April.
    9. Ahn, Hie Joo, 2016. "Heterogeneity in the Dynamics of Disaggregate Unemployment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. repec:iab:iabjlr:v:52:i:1:p:art.7,15 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Hie Ahn & James Hamilton, 2016. "Heterogeneity and Unemployment Dynamics," Working Papers id:11130, eSocialSciences.
    12. Abbring, Jaap H. & Berg, Gerard J. van den & Ours, Jan C. van, 1997. "Business cycles and compositional variation in U.S. unemployment," Serie Research Memoranda 0020, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    13. Pieter Serneels, 2002. "Explaining Non-Negative Duration Dependence Among the Unemployed," CSAE Working Paper Series 2002-13, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    14. Ochsen, Carsten, 2008. "How the distribution of unemployment by duration affects the unemployment rate," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 88, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    15. John M. Nunley & Adam Pugh & Nicholas Romero & Richard Alan Seals, Jr., 2015. "Unemployment, Underemployment, and Employment Opportunities: Results from a Correspondence Audit," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2015-13, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    16. Campolieti, Michele, 2009. "An Analysis of Unemployment Incidence and Duration: Some New Evidence from Canada," CLSSRN working papers clsrn_admin-2009-14, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 02 Feb 2009.
    17. Adriaan Kalwij, 2010. "Unemployment durations and the pattern of duration dependence over the business cycle of British males," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 429-456, April.
    18. Wido Geis, 2010. "High Unemployment in Germany: Why do Foreigners Suffer Most?," ifo Working Paper Series 90, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    19. repec:spr:jlabrs:v:52:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1186_s12651-018-0239-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Jouko Verho, 2014. "Unemployment duration and the role of compositional variation: evidence from a period of economic crisis in Finland," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 35-56, August.
    21. Turon, Hélène, 2003. "Separability of Duration Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity," IZA Discussion Papers 754, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    22. Kalwij, Adriaan, 2001. "Individuals' Unemployment Durations over the Business Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 369, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    23. Katharine G. Abraham & Robert Shimer, 2001. "Changes in Unemployment Duration and Labor Force Attachment," NBER Working Papers 8513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycle; Sorting Ranking; Unemployment Composition; Unemployment Duration;

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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