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Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment

Author

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  • Abbring, J.H.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • van den Berg, G.
  • van Ours, J.C.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

Abstract

In this paper we study U.S. unemployment dynamics using grouped unemployment data from the Current Population Survey over the period 1968-1992. We estimate a model that traces variation in these unemployment data, both over time and between demographic groups, back to the underlying variation in the inflow and the outflow. In turn, we model the outflow as a transition process in which we allow the exit probabilities to depend on calender time, duration, and demographic group. We particularly focus on the measurement and economic interpretation of the interaction of duration dependence of exit probabilities and the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Abbring, J.H. & van den Berg, G. & van Ours, J.C., 1999. "Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment," Discussion Paper 1999-65, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:8ca233fc-5d2a-49ff-a6e8-a387395fdd7e
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    Cited by:

    1. Muriel Dejemeppe & Yves Saks, 2002. "A New Light into Regional Unemployment Disparities in Belgium : Longitudinal Analysis of Grouped Duration Data," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2002019, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    2. Abbring, Jaap H. & van den Berg, Gerard J. & van Ours, Jan C., 2002. "The anatomy of unemployment dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1785-1824, December.
    3. John M. Nunley & Adam Pugh & Nicholas Romero & Richard Alan Seals, Jr., 2014. "Unemployment, Underemployment, and Employment Opportunities: Results from a Correspondence Audit of the Labor Market for College Graduates," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2014-04, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    4. Konstantinos Tatsiramos & Jan C. Ours, 2014. "Labor Market Effects Of Unemployment Insurance Design," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 284-311, April.
    5. Ahn, Hie Joo, 2016. "Heterogeneity in the Dynamics of Disaggregate Unemployment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
    6. repec:iab:iabjlr:v:52:i:1:p:art.7,15 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Hie Ahn & James Hamilton, 2016. "Heterogeneity and Unemployment Dynamics," Working Papers id:11130, eSocialSciences.
    8. Abbring, Jaap H. & Berg, Gerard J. van den & Ours, Jan C. van, 1997. "Business cycles and compositional variation in U.S. unemployment," Serie Research Memoranda 0020, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    9. Pieter Serneels, 2002. "Explaining Non-Negative Duration Dependence Among the Unemployed," CSAE Working Paper Series 2002-13, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    10. John M. Nunley & Adam Pugh & Nicholas Romero & Richard Alan Seals, Jr., 2015. "Unemployment, Underemployment, and Employment Opportunities: Results from a Correspondence Audit," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2015-13, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    11. Adriaan Kalwij, 2010. "Unemployment durations and the pattern of duration dependence over the business cycle of British males," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 429-456, April.
    12. Wido Geis, 2010. "High Unemployment in Germany: Why do Foreigners Suffer Most?," ifo Working Paper Series 90, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    13. repec:spr:jlabrs:v:52:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1186_s12651-018-0239-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Katharine G. Abraham & Robert Shimer, 2001. "Changes in Unemployment Duration and Labor Force Attachment," NBER Working Papers 8513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Michal Franta, 2008. "Time Aggregation Bias in Discrete Time Models of Aggregate Duration Data," Working Papers 2008/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    16. Cockx, Bart & Dejemeppe, Muriel, 2002. "Do the Higher Educated Unemployed Crowd Out the Lower Educated Ones in a Competition for Jobs?," IZA Discussion Papers 541, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    17. Muriel Dejemeppe & Bart Cockx, 2005. "Duration dependence in the exit rate out of unemployment in Belgium. Is it true or spurious?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 1-23.
    18. Burgess, Simon & Turon, Hélène, 2000. "Unemployment Dynamics, Duration and Equilibrium: Evidence from Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 2490, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Ochsen, Carsten, 2008. "How the distribution of unemployment by duration affects the unemployment rate," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 88, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    20. Campolieti, Michele, 2009. "An Analysis of Unemployment Incidence and Duration: Some New Evidence from Canada," CLSSRN working papers clsrn_admin-2009-14, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 02 Feb 2009.
    21. Jouko Verho, 2014. "Unemployment duration and the role of compositional variation: evidence from a period of economic crisis in Finland," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 35-56, August.
    22. Turon, Hélène, 2003. "Separability of Duration Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity," IZA Discussion Papers 754, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    23. Kalwij, Adriaan, 2001. "Individuals' Unemployment Durations over the Business Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 369, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment incidence; unemployment duration; unemployment compositon; business cycles; sorting; ranking;

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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