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Decomposing the Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment

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  • Bachmann, Ronald
  • Sinning, Mathias

Abstract

This paper analyzes the contribution of the socioeconomic and demographic composition of the pool of employed and unemployed individuals to the dynamics of the labor market in different phases of the business cycle. Using individual level data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), we decompose differences in employment status transition rates between economic upswings and downturns into composition effects and behavioral effects. We find that overall composition effects play a minor role for the cyclicality of the unemployment outflow rate, although the contribution of the duration of unemployment is significant. In contrast, composition effects dampen the cyclicality of the unemployment inflow rate considerably. We further observe that the initially positive contribution of composition effects to a higher unemployment outflow rate turns negative over the course of the recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Bachmann, Ronald & Sinning, Mathias, 2011. "Decomposing the Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," Ruhr Economic Papers 305, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:305
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    Cited by:

    1. Ronald Bachmann & Peggy Bechara & Anica Kramer & Sylvi Rzepka, 2015. "Labour market dynamics and worker heterogeneity during the Great Recession – Evidence from Europe," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, December.
    2. Pizzinelli, Carlo & Speigner, Bradley, 2017. "Matching efficiency and labour market heterogeneity in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 667, Bank of England.
    3. Monastiriotis, Vassilis & Martelli, Angelo, 2021. "Crisis, adjustment and resilience in the Greek labor market: an unemployment decomposition approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 107048, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Ronald Bachmann & Peggy Bechara, 2019. "The Importance of Two‐Sided Heterogeneity for the Cyclicality of Labour Market Dynamics," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 87(6), pages 794-820, December.
    5. Hie Ahn & James Hamilton, 2016. "Heterogeneity and Unemployment Dynamics," Working Papers id:11130, eSocialSciences.
    6. Vassilis Monastiriotis & Angelo Martelli, 2021. "Crisis, Adjustment and Resilience in the Greek Labor Market: An Unemployment Decomposition Approach," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 44(1), pages 85-112, January.
    7. Sara Rica & Yolanda F. Rebollo-Sanz, 2017. "Gender Differentials in Unemployment Ins and Outs during the Great Recession in Spain," De Economist, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 67-99, March.
    8. Hie Joo Ahn, 2016. "The Role of Observed and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Duration of Unemployment Spells," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-063r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 25 Mar 2022.
    9. Mindaugas Butkus & Kristina Matuzeviciute & Dovile Rupliene & Janina Seputiene, 2020. "Does Unemployment Responsiveness to Output Change Depend on Age, Gender, Education, and the Phase of the Business Cycle?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-29, November.
    10. Maurizio Baussola & Chiara Mussida, 2017. "Regional and gender differentials in the persistence of unemployment in Europe," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 173-190, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gross worker flows; unemployment duration; decomposition analysis; Blinder-Oaxaca; Gross worker flows; unemployment duration; decomposition analysis; Blinder-Oaxaca;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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