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Decomposing the Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment

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  • Ronald Bachmann
  • Mathias Sinning

Abstract

This paper analyzes the contribution of the socioeconomic and demographic composition of the pool of employed and unemployed individuals to the dynamics of the labor market in different phases of the business cycle. Using individual level data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), we decompose differences in employment status transition rates between economic upswings and downturns into composition effects and behavioral effects. We find that overall composition effects play a minor role for the cyclicality of the unemployment outflow rate, although the contribution of the duration of unemployment is significant. In contrast, composition effects dampen the cyclicality of the unemployment inflow rate considerably. We further observe that the initially positive contribution of composition effects to a higher unemployment outflow rate turns negative over the course of the recession.
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  • Ronald Bachmann & Mathias Sinning, 2016. "Decomposing the Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 853-876, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:78:y:2016:i:6:p:853-876
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/obes.12133
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    Cited by:

    1. Ronald Bachmann & Peggy Bechara & Anica Kramer & Sylvi Rzepka, 2015. "Labour market dynamics and worker heterogeneity during the Great Recession – Evidence from Europe," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, December.
    2. Ronald Bachmann & Peggy Bechara, 2019. "The Importance of Two‐Sided Heterogeneity for the Cyclicality of Labour Market Dynamics," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 87(6), pages 794-820, December.
    3. Ronald Bachmann & Peggy Bechara & Anica Kramer & Sylvi Rzepka, 2014. "Labour Market Dynamics and Worker Heterogeneity During the Great Recession – Evidence from Europe," Ruhr Economic Papers 0499, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Pizzinelli, Carlo & Speigner, Bradley, 2017. "Matching efficiency and labour market heterogeneity in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 667, Bank of England.
    5. Robert E. Hall & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, 2018. "Measuring Job-Finding Rates and Matching Efficiency with Heterogeneous Job-Seekers," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, January.
    6. Hie Joo Ahn, 2016. "The Role of Observed and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Duration of Unemployment Spells," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-063r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 25 Mar 2022.
    7. Monastiriotis, Vassilis & Martelli, Angelo, 2021. "Crisis, adjustment and resilience in the Greek labor market: an unemployment decomposition approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 107048, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Hie Ahn & James Hamilton, 2016. "Heterogeneity and Unemployment Dynamics," Working Papers id:11130, eSocialSciences.
    9. Sara Rica & Yolanda F. Rebollo-Sanz, 2017. "Gender Differentials in Unemployment Ins and Outs during the Great Recession in Spain," De Economist, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 67-99, March.
    10. Vassilis Monastiriotis & Angelo Martelli, 2021. "Crisis, Adjustment and Resilience in the Greek Labor Market: An Unemployment Decomposition Approach," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 44(1), pages 85-112, January.
    11. Simmons, Michael, 2023. "Job-to-job transitions, job finding and the ins of unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. Mindaugas Butkus & Kristina Matuzeviciute & Dovile Rupliene & Janina Seputiene, 2020. "Does Unemployment Responsiveness to Output Change Depend on Age, Gender, Education, and the Phase of the Business Cycle?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-29, November.
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    14. Sam Schulhofer-Wohl & Robert Hall, 2014. "Measuring Matching Efficiency with Heterogeneous Jobseekers," 2014 Meeting Papers 368, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Monastiriotis, Vassilis & Martelli, Angelo, 2021. "Crisis, adjustment and resilience in the Greek labor market: an unemployment decomposition approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115066, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Maurizio Baussola & Chiara Mussida, 2017. "Regional and gender differentials in the persistence of unemployment in Europe," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 173-190, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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