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2025
2024
2023
2022
- 2206 The 2008 Financial Crisis and its effect in the Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Costa Rica study how the changes in international trade flows observed after the 2008 financial crisis affected the Costa Rican balance of payments accounts, and how the equilibrium real exchange rate reacted to these changes. To fulfill this objective, we estimate long term relations between the balance of payments accounts and their fundamentals. In these estimations, we include a structural change variable to capture the financial crisis effects on the behavior of these variables. Further, we estimate the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate by using the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate (FEER) and Desired Equilibrium Exchange Rate (DEER) methodologies. The results show that the exports and imports elasticity with respect to the real exchange rate decreased after the crisis. Consequently, by considering the effect of the crisis, we conclude that the real exchange rate falldown observed between 2008 and 2011 can be explained by movementes in its equilibrium value. However, between 2012 and 2016 we observed a small real appreciation, which can be associated to sovereign debt issues in international markets during that period. ***Resumen: Este estudio evalúa el efecto que los cambios permanentes en los flujos de comercio internacional provocados por la crisis financiera de 2008 tuvieron en las distintas cuentas de la balanza de pagos de Costa Rica, y cómo estos cambios afectaron de forma agregada el tipo de cambio real de equilibrio. Con este fin se estiman relaciones de largo plazo entre las cuentas de la balanza de pagos y sus determinantes fundamentales. En cada estimación se incluye una variable de cambio estructural que captura el efecto de la crisis financiera de 2008. Finalmente, se utilizan las metodologías de Tipo de Cambio Real de Equilibrio Fundamental y Tipo de Cambio Real de Equilibrio Deseado para obtener estimaciones del Tipo de Cambio Real de Equilibrio. Los resultados indican que la crisis redujo la elasticidad tanto de las exportaciones como de las importaciones con respecto al Índice de Tipo de Cambio Real (ITCER). Esto permite, al considerar el efecto de la crisis, concluir que la caída en el ITCER observada entre el 2008 y el 2011 se explica por cambios en su valor de equilibrio. Sin embargo, entre 2012 y 2016 se presentó una ligera apreciación real que se puede asociar, al menos en parte, a las emisiones de deuda en los mercados internacionales realizadas por el gobierno de Costa Rica durante ese periodo
by Carlos Brenes-Soto & Susan Jiménez-Montero & Carlos Segura-Rodriguez
- 2205 Impact of COVID-19 Restrictions in Costa Rica: a Local Approach
by Jose Pablo Barquero-Romero & Esteban Méndez-Chacón & Carlos Segura-Rodriguez
- 2204 Voting on a Trade Agreement: Firm Networks and Attitudes Toward Openness
by Esteban Méndez-Chacón & Diana Van Patten
- 2203 Multinationals, Monopsony, and Local Development: Evidence from the United Fruit Company
by Esteban Méndez-Chacón & Diana Van Patten
- 2202 Historical analysis of the real exchange rate in Costa Rica
by Alonso Alfaro-Ureña & Catalina Sandoval-Alvarado
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by Grace Huertas-Morales & Kerry Loaiza-Marín & Laura Ortiz-Coto