IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/22005.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Endogenous Technology Adoption and R&D as Sources of Business Cycle Persistence

Author

Listed:
  • Diego Anzoategui
  • Diego Comin
  • Mark Gertler
  • Joseba Martinez

Abstract

We examine the hypothesis that the slowdown in productivity following the Great Recession was in significant part an endogenous response to the contraction in demand that induced the downturn. We first present some panel data evidence that technology diffusion is highly cyclical. We then develop and estimate a macroeconomic model with an endogenous TFP mechanism that allows for both costly development and adoption of new technologies. We then show that the model's implied cyclicality of technology diffusion is consistent with the panel data evidence. We next use the model to assess the sources of the productivity slowdown. We find that a significant fraction of the post- Great Recession fall in productivity was an endogenous phenomenon. The endogenous productivity mechanism also helps account for the slowdown in productivity prior to the Great Recession, though for this period shocks to the effectiveness of R&D expenditures are critical. Overall, the results are consistent with the view that demand factors have played a role in the slowdown of capacity growth since the onset of the recent crisis. More generally, they provide insight into why recoveries from financial crises may be so slow.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego Anzoategui & Diego Comin & Mark Gertler & Joseba Martinez, 2016. "Endogenous Technology Adoption and R&D as Sources of Business Cycle Persistence," NBER Working Papers 22005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22005
    Note: AP DAE IFM ME PR
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w22005.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ann Bartel & Casey Ichniowski & Kathryn L. Shaw & Ricardo Correa, 2009. "International Differences in the Adoption and Impact of New Information Technologies and New HR Practices: The Valve-Making Industry in the United States and United Kingdom," NBER Chapters,in: International Differences in the Business Practices and Productivity of Firms, pages 55-78 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
    3. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
    5. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Daniel Garcia-Macia, 2017. "The Financing of Ideas and the Great Deviation," IMF Working Papers 17/176, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Ryo Jinnai, 2013. "Liquidity, Trends and the Great Recession," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 015, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    9. Dan Andrews & Chiara Criscuolo & Peter N. Gal, 2015. "Frontier Firms, Technology Diffusion and Public Policy: Micro Evidence from OECD Countries," OECD Productivity Working Papers 2, OECD Publishing.
    10. Yuta Takahashi & Lawrence Schmidt & Konstantin Milbradt & Ian Dew-Becker & David Berger, 2016. "Layoff risk, the welfare cost of business cycles, and monetary policy," 2016 Meeting Papers 1293, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Davies, Stephen W., 1979. "Inter-firm diffusion of process innovations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 299-317, October.
    12. John G. Fernald, 2012. "A quarterly, utilization-adjusted series on total factor productivity," Working Paper Series 2012-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Ryo Jinnai, 2014. "Liquidity, Trends and the Great Recession," Working Papers e66, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    14. W. Michael Cox & Richard Alm, 1996. "The economy at light speed: technology and growth in the information age and beyond," Annual Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 2-17.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.