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Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models

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  • Marco Del Negro
  • Marc P. Giannoni
  • Frank Schorfheide

Abstract

It has been argued that existing DSGE models cannot properly account for the evolution of key macroeconomic variables during and following the recent great recession. We challenge this argument by showing that a standard DSGE model with financial frictions available prior to the recent crisis successfully predicts a sharp contraction in economic activity along with a modest and protracted decline in inflation, following the rise in financial stress in 2008Q4. The model does so even though inflation remains very dependent on the evolution of economic activity and of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Del Negro & Marc P. Giannoni & Frank Schorfheide, 2014. "Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models," NBER Working Papers 20055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20055
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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