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What's up with the Phillips Curve?

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  • Primiceri, Giorgio
  • Del Negro, Marco
  • Lenza, Michele
  • Tambalotti, Andrea

Abstract

The business cycle is alive and well, and real variables respond to it more or less as they always did. Witness the Great Recession. Inflation, in contrast, has gone quiescent. This paper studies the sources of this disconnect using VARs and an estimated DSGE model. It finds that the disconnect is due primarily to the muted reaction of inflation to cost pressures, regardless of how they are measured—a flat aggregate supply curve. A shift in policy towards more forceful inflation stabilization also appears to have played some role by reducing the impact of demand shocks on the real economy. The evidence rules out stories centered around changes in the structure of the labor market or in how we should measure its tightness.

Suggested Citation

  • Primiceri, Giorgio & Del Negro, Marco & Lenza, Michele & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2020. "What's up with the Phillips Curve?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14583, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14583
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    3. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Working Papers 22-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    4. Rodnyansky, Alexander & Van der Ghote, Alejandro & Wales, Daniel, 2022. "Product quality, measured inflation and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2680, European Central Bank.
    5. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2020. "The Macroeconomy as a Random Forest," Papers 2006.12724, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    6. Kristen Tauber & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2020. "A Growth-Augmented Phillips Curve," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2020(16), pages 1-6, July.
    7. Fabian Eser & Peter Karadi & Philip R. Lane & Laura Moretti & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "The Phillips Curve at the ECB," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 50-85, September.
    8. Martín Uribe, 2020. "Staggered Price Indexation," NBER Working Papers 27657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Ayşegül Şahin, 2022. "The Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off Revisited: The Phillips Curve in COVID Times," NBER Working Papers 29785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Rossi, Lorenza, 2021. "Asymmetries in monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    11. Clayton, Christopher & Schaab, Andreas, 2022. "A Theory of Dynamic Inflation Targets," TSE Working Papers 22-1389, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    12. Paternesi Meloni, Walter & Romaniello, Davide & Stirati, Antonella, 2022. "Inflation and the NAIRU: assessing the role of long-term unemployment as a cause of hysteresis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    13. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    14. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Papers 2202.04146, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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