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Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area: what has changed since the crisis?

Author

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  • Giannone, Domenico
  • Lenza, Michele
  • Reichlin, Lucrezia

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between the business cycle and financial intermediation in the euro area. We establish stylized facts and study their stability during the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis. Long-term interest rates have been exceptionally high and long-term loans and deposits exceptionally low since the Lehman collapse. Instead, short-term interest rates and short-term loans and deposits did not show abnormal dynamics in the course of the financial and sovereign debt crisis. JEL Classification: E32, E51, E52, C32, C51

Suggested Citation

  • Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2019. "Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area: what has changed since the crisis?," Working Paper Series 2226, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20192226
    Note: 411196
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Del Negro & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2020. "What's Up with the Phillips Curve?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(1 (Spring), pages 301-373.
    2. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Kremer, Manfred & Lund-Thomsen, Frederik, 2023. "Quantifying financial stability trade-offs for monetary policy: a quantile VAR approach," Working Paper Series 2833, European Central Bank.
    3. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Guido Ascari & Luca Fosso, 2021. "The Inflation Rate Disconnect Puzzle: On the International Component of Trend Inflation and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve," Discussion Papers 2113, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    5. Pedro J. Gutiérrez-Diez & Tibor Pàl, 2023. "Monetary policy models: lessons from the Eurozone crisis," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19, December.
    6. Matteo Barigozzi, 2023. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models: A Critical Review," Papers 2303.11777, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    7. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
    8. Antolín-Díaz, Juan & Petrella, Ivan & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2021. "Structural scenario analysis with SVARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 798-815.
    9. Gianluca Cafiso, 2022. "Loans to Different Groups and Economic Activity at Times of Crisis and Growth," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 594-623, June.
    10. Angela Capolongo & Claudia Pacella, 2021. "Forecasting inflation in the euro area: countries matter!," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2477-2499, November.
    11. Dajčman Silvo & Kavkler Alenka & Levenko Natalia & Romih Dejan, 2022. "Spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty on adult and youth unemployment," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 23(1), pages 47-70, December.
    12. Elena Afanasyeva, 2020. "Can Forecast Errors Predict Financial Crises? Exploring the Properties of a New Multivariate Credit Gap," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-045, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area; loans; monetary policy; money; non-financial corporations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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