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Low inflation and monetary policy in the euro area

Author

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  • Neri, Stefano
  • Nobili, Andrea
  • Conti, Antonio M.

Abstract

Inflation in the euro area has been falling since mid-2013, turned negative at the end of 2014 and remained below target thereafter. This paper employs a Bayesian VAR to quantify the contribution of a set of structural shocks, identified by means of sign restrictions, to inflation and economic activity. Shocks to oil supply do not tell the full story about the disinflation that started in 2013, as both aggregate demand and monetary policy shocks also played an important role. The lower bound to policy rates turned the European Central Bank (ECB) conventional monetary policy de facto contractionary. A country analysis confirms that the negative effects of oil supply and monetary policy shocks on inflation was widespread, albeit with different intensity across countries. The ECB unconventional measures since 2014 contributed to raising inflation and economic activity in all the countries. All in all, our analysis confirms the appropriateness of the ECB asset purchase programme. JEL Classification: C32, E31, E32, E52

Suggested Citation

  • Neri, Stefano & Nobili, Andrea & Conti, Antonio M., 2017. "Low inflation and monetary policy in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2005, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172005
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    Cited by:

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    3. William John Tayler & Roy Zilberman, 2017. "Taxation, Credit Spreads and Liquidity Traps," Working Papers 173174116, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    4. Gert Peersman, 2018. "International Food Commodity Prices And Missing (Dis)Inflation In The Euro Area," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 18/947, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    5. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio M. Conti, 2018. "On the Stability of Euro Area Money Demand and Its Implications for Monetary Policy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(4), pages 755-787, August.
    6. Aleksandra Halka & Karol Szafranek, 2017. "Determinants of low inflation in emerging, small open economy. Comparison of aggregated and disaggregated approaches," EcoMod2017 10560, EcoMod.
    7. Dallari, Pietro & Ribba, Antonio, 2020. "The dynamic effects of monetary policy and government spending shocks on unemployment in the peripheral Euro area countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 218-232.
    8. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Osbat, Chiara, 2017. "Low inflation in the euro area: Causes and consequences," Occasional Paper Series 181, European Central Bank.
    9. Lenarčič, Črt, 2019. "Complementaries and Tensions between Monetary and Macroprudential Policies in an Estimated DSGE Model (Application to Slovenia)," MPRA Paper 104486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Andersson, Fredrik N.G. & Jonung, Lars, 2020. "Lessons from the Swedish Experience with Negative Central Bank Rates," Working Papers 2020:15, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    11. William John Tayler & Roy Zilberman, 2019. "Macroprudential Interventions in Liquidity Traps," Working Papers 257107351, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    12. David Finck & Peter Tillmann, 2019. "The Role of Global and Domestic Shocks for Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Asia," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2019_022, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    13. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James D., 2020. "Drawing conclusions from structural vector autoregressions identified on the basis of sign restrictions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    14. Ortega, Eva & Osbat, Chiara, 2020. "Exchange rate pass-through in the euro area and EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 241, European Central Bank.
    15. Prinz Aloys & Beck Hanno, 2018. "Geldpolitischer Aktionismus, Ersparnisbildung und Kapitalallokation – Einige ökonomische Überlegungen," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 67(1), pages 101-124, May.
    16. Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2018. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay ? Insights from a time-varying parameter model with survey data," Working Paper Research 355, National Bank of Belgium.
    17. Stefano Neri & Giuseppe Ferrero, 2017. "Monetary policy in a low interest rate environment," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 392, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian methods; inflation; monetary policy; oil supply; VAR models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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