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Euro area and global oil shocks: an empirical model-based analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Lorenzo Forni

    () (International Monetary Fund)

  • Andrea Gerali

    () (Bank of Italy)

  • Alessandro Notarpietro

    ()

  • Massimiliano Pisani

    () (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We assess the impact of oil shocks on euro-area macroeconomic variables by estimating a new-Keynesian small open economy model with Bayesian methods. Oil price is determined according to supply and demand conditions in the world oil market. We find that the impact of an increase in the price of oil depends upon the underlying sources of variation: when the driver of higher oil prices is an increase in the rest of the world's aggregate demand, both euro-area GDP and CPI inflation increase, whereas negative oil supply shocks and positive worldwide oil-specific demand shocks have stagflationary effects on the euro-area economy. Moreover, the increase in oil prices during the 2004-2008 period did not induce stagflationary effects on the euro-area economy because it was associated with positive aggregate demand shocks in the rest of the world. Similarly, a drop in world aggregate demand helps to explain the recent (2008) simultaneous drop in oil prices, euro-area GDP and inflation - particularly its fuel component.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Forni & Andrea Gerali & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2012. "Euro area and global oil shocks: an empirical model-based analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 873, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_873_12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Morana, Claudio, 2017. "Macroeconomic and financial effects of oil price shocks: Evidence for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 82-96.
    2. Eric Amoo Bondzie & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Gabriel Obed Fosu, 2014. "Oil Price Fluctuations and it Impact on Economic Growth: A Dsge Approach," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(2), pages 217-242, February.
    3. Lorenzo Burlon & Simone Emiliozzi & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2015. "Medium-term forecasting of euro-area macroeconomic variables with DSGE and BVARX models," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 257, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Neri, Stefano & Nobili, Andrea & Conti, Antonio M., 2017. "Low inflation and monetary policy in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2005, European Central Bank.
    5. Nikolay Hristov, 2016. "The Ifo DSGE Model for the German Economy," ifo Working Paper Series 210, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil shocks; DSGE modelling; open-economy macroeconomics; Bayesian inference; euro area;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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