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Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s? A structural interpretation of changes in the macroeconomic effects of oil prices in the US

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Blanchard

    () (International Monetary Fund, MIT, NBER)

  • Marianna Riggi

    () (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

In the 1970s, large increases in the price of oil were associated with sharp decreases in output and large increases in inflation. In the 2000s, even larger increases in the price of oil were associated with much milder movements in output and inflation. Using a structural VAR approach, Blanchard and Gali (2009) argued that this reflected a change in the causal relation from the price of oil to output and inflation. They then argued that this change could be due to a combination of three factors, namely, a smaller share of oil in production and consumption, lower real wage rigidity and better monetary policy. Their argument, based on simulations of a simple new-Keynesian model, was informal. Our purpose in this paper is to take the next step, and to estimate the explanatory power and contribution of each of these factors. To do so, we use a minimum distance estimator that minimizes, over the set of structural parameters and for each of two samples (pre- and post-1984), the distance between the empirical SVAR-based impulse response functions and those implied by a new-Keynesian model. Our empirical results point to an important role for all three factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Blanchard & Marianna Riggi, 2011. "Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s? A structural interpretation of changes in the macroeconomic effects of oil prices in the US," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 835, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_835_11
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    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2011/2011-0835/en_tema_835.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Refet S G├╝rkaynak & Andrew Levin & Eric Swanson, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the U.S., UK, and Sweden," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1208-1242, December.
    2. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    3. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "Economics of Worldwide Stagflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brun85-1, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Davis, J. Scott, 2012. "Central bank credibility and the persistence of inflation and inflation expectations," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 117, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 01 Apr 2014.
    2. Riggi, Marianna & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2015. "The time varying effect of oil price shocks on euro-area exports," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 75-94.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil prices; wage rigidities; monetary policy credibility.;

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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