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The Information in the High Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications

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Listed author(s):
  • Mark Gertler
  • Cara S. Lown

Abstract

The market for high yield (below investment-grade) corporate bonds developed in the middle 1980s. We show that, since this time, the high yield spread has had significant explanatory power for the business cycle. We interpret this finding as possibly symptomatic of financial factors at work in the business cycle, along the lines suggested by the financial accelerator. We also show that over this period the high yield spread outperforms other leading financial indicators, including the term spread, the paper-bill spread and the Federal Funds rate. We conjecture that changes in the conduct of monetary policy over time may account for the reduced informativeness of these alternative indicators, all of which are tied closely to monetary policy.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w7549.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7549.

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Date of creation: Feb 2000
Publication status: published as Gertler, Mark & Lown, Cara S, 1999. "The Information in the High-Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 132-50, Autumn.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7549
Note: AG EFG ME
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
  • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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  1. > Econometrics > Forecasting > Forecasting Economic Activity Using Financial Variables
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