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Financial frictions in the euro area: a Bayesian assessment

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  • Villa, Stefania

Abstract

This paper compares from a Bayesian perspective three dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models in order to analyse whether financial frictions are empirically relevant in the Euro Area (EA) and, if so, which type of financial frictions is preferred by the data. The models are: (i) Smets and Wouters (2007) (SW); (ii) a SW model with financial frictions originating in non-financial firms à la Bernanke et al. (1999), (SWBGG); and (iii) a SW model with financial frictions originating in financial intermediaries, à la Gertler and Karadi (2011), (SWGK). The comparison between the three estimated models is made along different dimensions: (i) the Bayes factor; (ii) business cycle moments; and (iii) impulse response functions. The analysis of the Bayes factor and of simulated moments provides evidence in favour of the SWGK model. This paper also finds that the SWGK model outperforms the SWBGG model in forecasting EA inflationary pressures in a Phillips curve specification. JEL Classification: C11, E44

Suggested Citation

  • Villa, Stefania, 2013. "Financial frictions in the euro area: a Bayesian assessment," Working Paper Series 1521, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131521
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    1. repec:eee:dyncon:v:78:y:2017:i:c:p:164-189 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:249-269 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Gabriela Castro & José R. Maria & Paulo Júlio & Ricardo Mourinho Félix, 2013. "Fiscal multipliers in a small euro area economy: How big can they get in crisis times?," Working Papers w201311, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    4. Villa, Stefania, 2016. "Financial Frictions In The Euro Area And The United States: A Bayesian Assessment," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(05), pages 1313-1340, July.
    5. Thomas Brand & Fabien Tripier, 2014. "Risk shocks and divergence between the Euro area and the US," Working Papers 2014-11, CEPII research center.
    6. Gelain, Paolo & Ilbas, Pelin, 2017. "Monetary and macroprudential policies in an estimated model with financial intermediation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 164-189.
    7. Beck, Thorsten & Colciago, Andrea & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2014. "The role of financial intermediaries in monetary policy transmission," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-11.
    8. Leeper, Eric M. & Li, Bing, 2017. "Surplus–debt regressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 10-15.
    9. Javier García-Cicco & Markus Kirchner & Santiago Justel, 2014. "Financial Frictions and the Transmission of Foreign Shocks in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 722, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Diniz, Andre & Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2014. "Financial disruption as a cost of sovereign default: a quantitative assessment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86329, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Javier García-Cicco & Markus Kirchner & Santiago Justel, 2015. "Domestic Financial Frictions and the Transmission of Foreign Shocks in Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Claudio Raddatz & Diego Saravia & Jaume Ventura (ed.), Global Liquidity, Spillovers to Emerging Markets and Policy Responses, edition 1, volume 20, chapter 6, pages 159-222 Central Bank of Chile.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bayesian estimation; DSGE models; financial frictions;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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